Primeira Liga · Mon · 19:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Benfica at 1.13 imply roughly an 88% chance of winning, marking them as strong home favourites.
Estoril at 19.0 sit at around 5% implied probability, one of the longest home-underdog prices on the board.
The draw is priced at 9.5, about 11% implied, reflecting limited expectation of a stalemate.
Our recommended Over 3.5 goals at 1.87 shows a negative value edge of -5.76%, so it is a lean rather than a clear market inefficiency.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 9.6% | 10.42 |
| 3-0 | 9.3% | 10.76 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
| 3-1 | 8.2% | 12.24 |
| 4-0 | 6.7% | 14.84 |
| 1-0 | 6.6% | 15.11 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.90 and 0.88. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Benfica's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BEN | X | 2 · EST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.12 | 9.50 | 20.00 |
| 888sport | 1.10 | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| William Hill | 1.10 | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.10 | 10.12 | 18.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.10 | 9.30 | 19.00 |
| Tipico | 1.08 | 11.00 | 19.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Benfica host Estoril in the Primeira Liga, and the market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. At 1.13, Benfica are priced as heavy favourites, an implied probability of around 88%. Estoril, by contrast, drift out to 19.0, worth only about 5% in the market's eyes, while the draw sits at 9.5, roughly 11%. That is one of the wider price gaps you will see in a domestic top-flight fixture, and it reflects the market's strong lean toward the home side. Rather than backing a short favourite at minimal returns, our model looks to the goals market instead, flagging Over 3.5 goals at 1.87 with a market-implied confidence near 50%. Note, though, that this pick carries a negative value edge of about -5.76% against the price, so it is a preference rather than a standout edge in this Benfica versus Estoril meeting.
Verdict: The suggested play is Over 3.5 goals at 1.87, with the model near a coin-flip at 50% confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -5.76%, meaning the price is slightly against you. Treat it as a modest-risk goals lean and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:15 | Gil Vicente v Casa Pia | 1.76 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| 28 Aug 19:15 | Rio Ave FC v Sporting Lisbon | 9.50 | 5.88 | 1.32 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Alverca v Santa Clara | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.68 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Arouca v CS Maritimo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Académico de Viseu v FC Porto | 10.00 | 5.56 | 1.34 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | Nacional v CF Estrela | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 17:00 | Casa Pia v Moreirense FC | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:30 | Famalicão v Gil Vicente | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | SL Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 4 |
| 7 | CD Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Vitória SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Amadora | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Acad. Viseu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.00, with a 48% confidence rating.
Benfica are clear favourites at 1.13, implying about an 88% chance. Estoril are long outsiders at 19.0, around 5% implied.
The draw is available at 9.5 with Tipico, which translates to roughly an 11% implied probability.
No value pick cleared our threshold here. The model's preferred Over 3.5 goals at 1.87 actually carries a negative edge of about -5.76%, so it is a lean rather than a value bet.
Benfica vs Estoril takes place Mon · 19:15 in the Primeira Liga.
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