Süper Lig · Sun · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Basaksehir are the clear favourites at 1.65 (about 61% implied), with Kocaelispor long outsiders at 6.18 (about 16%).
The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 2.17 carries roughly 45% implied confidence but a negative value edge of -3.12%.
The draw at 3.9 is the standout in our value screen, with a fair probability of 27% and a positive edge of 4.93%.
The gap between the home and away prices points to a lopsided market rather than a tightly contested pricing.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.40 | +10.8% | 25% | 63 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Basaksehir | 1.55 | 1xBet | 64.5% |
| Kocaelispor | 6.75 | 1xBet | 14.8% |
| Draw | 4.40 | Tipico | 22.7% |
Basaksehir host Kocaelispor in this Süper Lig fixture, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Basaksehir are priced at 1.65 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of around 61%. Kocaelispor are firmly the outsiders at 6.18, or roughly 16% in probability terms, while the draw sits at 3.9 with Tipico, worth about 26%. That is a wide price gap, reflecting a clear home lean rather than a coin-flip contest. Our model's recommended bet steps away from the match result and looks at goals, favouring Over 2.5 at 2.17. It should be noted that the market-implied confidence here is around 45% and the value edge is slightly negative at -3.12%, so this is a lean rather than a strong signal. The more interesting number in the value screen is the draw, flagged with a positive edge, which we cover below.
Verdict: The model's headline lean is Over 2.5 goals at 2.17, but with a negative edge of -3.12% it is a marginal call rather than a compelling one. The draw at 3.9 shows the only positive value edge. Treat both as modest positions and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 18:30 | Galatasaray v Akhisar Belediyespor | 1.20 | 7.29 | 12.50 |
| 15 Aug 16:00 | Kasimpasa SK v Trabzonspor | 4.10 | 3.83 | 1.90 |
| 15 Aug 16:00 | Torku Konyaspor v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.56 | 3.30 | 3.14 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Genclerbirligi SK v Fenerbahce | 6.81 | 4.58 | 1.50 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Gazişehir Gaziantep v Alanyaspor | 2.66 | 3.50 | 2.71 |
| 16 Aug 18:30 | Amed SK v Erzurum BB | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 18:30 | Besiktas JK v Eyüpspor | 1.35 | 5.70 | 8.95 |
| 17 Aug 18:30 | Samsunspor v Goztepe | 2.20 | 3.43 | 3.52 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 50% confidence rating.
Basaksehir are the favourites at 1.65 with 1xBet, an implied probability of about 61%. Kocaelispor are the outsiders at 6.18, roughly 16%.
The draw is best priced at 3.9 with Tipico, which implies around 26%. Our model assigns it a fair probability of 27%, giving a positive value edge of 4.93%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.17 actually shows a negative edge of -3.12%, so it is a lean rather than clear value. The draw at 3.9 is the only selection flagged with a positive edge.
Basaksehir vs Kocaelispor takes place Sun · 16:00 in the Süper Lig.
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