Brasileirão · Sun · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Bahia's 1.84 price implies about a 54% chance, giving them a meaningful but not commanding advantage over Vasco da Gama.
Vasco da Gama at 4.42 imply roughly 23%, yet our model rates their fair probability at 25%, producing a positive value edge of 8.43%.
The draw is priced at 3.66, around a 27% implied chance, typical for a fixture with a moderate favourite.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.89 shows market-implied confidence near 51% but a negative edge of -3.78%, so it offers no pricing advantage.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.7% | 9.38 |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | 9.40 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.10 |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | 10.11 |
| 3-1 | 6.1% | 16.31 |
| 3-0 | 6.1% | 16.34 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.86 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama to win | 4.30 | +4.1% | 24% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Bahia's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.94 | Betfair | 51.5% |
| Vasco da Gama | 4.30 | Betfair | 23.3% |
| Draw | 3.76 | BetOnline.ag | 26.6% |
This Brasileirão clash sees Bahia host Vasco da Gama with the market leaning firmly towards the home side. Bahia are priced at 1.84 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 54%, marking them as the clear favourite. Vasco da Gama sit at 4.42, or about 23% implied, while the draw is offered at 3.66, close to a 27% chance. The gap between the two match-result prices underlines how the market views this as a contest where Bahia hold the edge without being overwhelming favourites. Our model's headline bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.89, a near coin-flip proposition with market-implied confidence around 51%. It is worth noting that this selection carries a negative value edge of -3.78%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. The more interesting value signal appears elsewhere in the underdog pricing, discussed below.
Verdict: The model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.89, essentially a coin-flip market with a small negative value edge, so treat it as a modest lean rather than a strong play. The standout value instead lies with Vasco da Gama at 4.42. Stake responsibly and stick to your bankroll plan.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Bragantino-SP v Corinthians | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 51% confidence rating.
Bahia are the favourites at 1.84, implying roughly a 54% chance. Vasco da Gama are the outsiders at 4.42, around 23% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.66 with 1xBet, which equates to an implied probability of about 27%.
Our model flags Vasco da Gama at 4.42 as a value pick, with a fair probability of 25% against the market's 23%, giving an edge of 8.43%. By contrast, the Over 2.5 goals selection carries a negative edge of -3.78%.
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama takes place Sun · 19:00 in the Brasileirão.
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