Eredivisie · Sat · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
AZ Alkmaar are strong favourites at 1.55, an implied probability of roughly 65%, while ADO Den Haag at 6.5 sit near 15%.
The draw is priced at 4.79, around a 21% chance, reflecting the market's expectation of a decisive result rather than a stalemate.
Our recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.3 carries a model confidence of about 42%, suggesting a reasonable but not high likelihood of a high-scoring game.
The value edge on the goals pick is negative at -3.25%, so the odds offer no measurable advantage over the market consensus.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 6.75 | Unibet (NL) | 14.8% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.50 | Betfair | 66.7% |
| Draw | 4.90 | Tipico | 20.4% |
AZ Alkmaar host ADO Den Haag in the Eredivisie, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. At a best price of 1.55, AZ carry a home win probability of roughly 65% in the bookmakers' eyes, marking them as clear favourites. ADO Den Haag are the outsiders at 6.5, implying around a 15% chance of an away victory, while the draw sits at 4.79, or about 21%. Those numbers point to a contest the market expects AZ to control rather than a coin toss. Our model steps away from the match result and instead looks at goals, recommending Over 3.5 goals at 2.3, with an implied confidence near 42%. It is worth noting the value edge on that pick is slightly negative at -3.25%, meaning the price offers no clear pricing advantage over the market. Treat it as a lean, not a standout opportunity, and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 3.5 goals at 2.3, backed by around 42% model confidence. With a negative value edge of -3.25%, this is a modest lean rather than a strong edge. High-goal markets are inherently volatile, so treat it as higher risk and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:00 | SC Cambuur v Excelsior | 2.60 | 3.75 | 2.65 |
| 8 Aug 14:30 | NEC Nijmegen v SC Telstar | 1.52 | 5.10 | 7.50 |
| 8 Aug 16:45 | Go Ahead Eagles v Willem II | 1.71 | 4.30 | 5.00 |
| 8 Aug 18:00 | PSV Eindhoven v Fortuna Sittard | 1.24 | 8.60 | 14.50 |
| 9 Aug 10:15 | Sparta Rotterdam v Feyenoord | 5.10 | 4.30 | 1.72 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | Groningen v FC Utrecht | 2.43 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| 9 Aug 12:30 | FC Zwolle v Ajax | 7.00 | 4.80 | 1.52 |
| 9 Aug 14:45 | Heerenveen v FC Twente Enschede | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.19 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.67, with a 58% confidence rating.
AZ Alkmaar are the clear favourites at a best price of 1.55, implying roughly a 65% chance of a home win. ADO Den Haag are priced at 6.5, around 15%.
The draw is available at 4.79 with Pinnacle, which translates to an implied probability of about 21%.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.3 actually shows a negative value edge of -3.25%, so there is no clear pricing advantage against the market.
AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag takes place Sat · 19:00 in the Eredivisie.
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