MLS · Sun · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Austin FC are market favourites at 2.26, implying roughly a 44 percent win probability, the shortest price on offer
San Diego FC at 3.01 imply about a 33 percent chance, yet the model rates them at 37 percent confidence, creating an 11.88 percent value edge
The draw is priced at 3.89, implying around 26 percent, making it the least backed outcome among the three
No additional value picks cleared the threshold elsewhere in the match-result market, keeping San Diego FC as the standout selection
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.4% | 8.80 |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | 10.89 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.47 |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | 13.48 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.20 |
| 0-2 | 7.0% | 14.20 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.30 and 1.61. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AF | X | 2 · SDF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.81 | 2.98 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.38 | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| Coolbet | 2.25 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| Betsson | 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.95 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.22 | 3.60 | 2.95 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.21 | 3.66 | 2.86 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Austin FC host San Diego FC in an MLS clash where the market leans toward the home side but without overwhelming conviction. Best odds have Austin FC at 2.26, which implies a win probability of roughly 44 percent, while San Diego FC sits at 3.01, translating to about 33 percent. The draw is priced at 3.89, or roughly 26 percent, rounding out a fairly tight three-way market once the bookmaker margin is factored in. Our model flags San Diego FC as the recommended play at 3.01, assigning the visitors a 37 percent confidence level, noticeably higher than the raw market price suggests, and calculating an 11.88 percent value edge. That gap between model and market pricing is the core storyline here, positioning San Diego FC as a value price rather than a market favourite, even though Austin FC remain the nominal favourites on paper heading into this MLS fixture.
Verdict: San Diego FC at 3.01 is the recommended angle, backed by an 11.88 percent value edge over the raw market price. It remains an underdog bet against a favoured home side, so it carries real risk and should be sized with sensible bankroll management rather than treated as a high-certainty outcome.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 23:00 | Inter Miami CF v San Diego FC | 1.49 | 5.80 | 6.50 |
| 24 Sept 01:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake | 2.01 | 3.95 | 3.95 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | New York Red Bulls v St. Louis City SC | 2.82 | 4.00 | 2.48 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York City FC | 2.35 | 3.75 | 3.23 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC | 1.53 | 5.26 | 6.30 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | CF Montreal v FC Cincinnati | 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.60 |
| 26 Sept 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Chicago Fire | 2.38 | 3.99 | 2.85 |
| 27 Sept 00:30 | Seattle Sounders FC v Minnesota United FC | 2.25 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.38, with a 41% confidence rating.
Austin FC are favourites according to the best available odds, priced at 2.26, which implies roughly a 44 percent chance of winning.
The draw is available at 3.89, implying an approximate 26 percent probability based on the odds given.
Yes, the model calculates an 11.88 percent value edge on San Diego FC at 3.01, rating their win chance at 37 percent versus the market-implied 33 percent, though this remains an underdog bet with corresponding risk.
Austin FC vs San Diego FC takes place Sun · 00:30 in the MLS.
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