MLS · Mon · 00:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
FC Dallas are favourites at 2.40 (around 42% implied), edging Austin FC at 2.92 (around 34% implied).
The result prices are tight, with only a modest gap between the two sides across the three outcomes.
The draw at 3.85 implies roughly 26%, consistent with a market expecting a close game.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 carries about 60% implied confidence, but the -2.96% value edge means no genuine overlay against the market.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.11 | +4.4% | 25% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC | 3.00 | LeoVegas (SE) | 33.3% |
| FC Dallas | 2.30 | Coolbet | 43.5% |
| Draw | 4.11 | 1xBet | 24.3% |
This MLS meeting between Austin FC and FC Dallas is a Texas derby that the market sees as genuinely competitive, with a slight lean toward the visitors. FC Dallas are the narrow favourites at 2.40 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 42% chance of winning, while Austin FC sit at 2.92 (about 34% implied) for the home side. The draw is priced at 3.85, translating to around 26%, which points to a market that expects a close, open contest rather than a one-sided result. With no single result standing out, attention shifts to the goals market. Our model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 with 1xBet, reflecting a market-implied confidence near 60%. It is worth noting the value edge on that price is slightly negative at -2.96%, so this is a lean rather than a strong overlay. Treat the goals angle as the main talking point for this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.62, backed by roughly 60% implied confidence. However, the negative value edge means the price offers no clear advantage over the market, so this is a modest-confidence lean rather than a standout bet. Stake responsibly and stay within your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Atlanta United FC v New York Red Bulls | 1.83 | 4.55 | 3.95 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38, with a 41% confidence rating.
FC Dallas are the narrow favourites at 2.40, implying around a 42% chance. Austin FC are priced at 2.92, roughly 34% implied, so the market sees a fairly balanced contest.
The draw is available at 3.85 with Coolbet, which implies about a 26% probability. That pricing is in line with a market anticipating a close encounter.
None of the value picks cleared our threshold, and the recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 shows a slightly negative edge of -2.96%. That makes it a lean rather than a genuine value opportunity.
Austin FC vs FC Dallas takes place Mon · 00:30 in the MLS.
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