English ⚽ Bundesliga 🕒 Sat · 13:30
Our tip
Under 4.5 goals
Odds
1.92
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 56%
AI Value edge 6.97% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Bayern Munich's 1.22 price implies an approximate 82 percent win probability, marking them as strong favourites over Augsburg.
02
Augsburg's 11.2 odds and the 9.35 draw price both imply low probabilities, under 12 percent each, reflecting how one-sided the market views this match.
03
The recommended bet is not on the match result but on Under 4.5 goals at 1.98, carrying a 56 percent model confidence and a 10.13 percent value edge.
04
No additional value picks were identified against the market consensus beyond the goals total, suggesting the result market itself offers limited betting value at current prices.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 68%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.60 |
| 1-3 | 7.8% | 12.79 |
| 0-2 | 6.6% | 15.13 |
| 1-1 | 6.3% | 15.77 |
| 0-3 | 6.0% | 16.67 |
| 2-2 | 5.6% | 17.76 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.30 and 2.72. These six scorelines cover 41% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
AUG Augsburg LDWWL
19 Sept 26 @ Bremen 2-3
12 Sept 26 vs Leverkusen 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Frankfurt 4-1
30 Aug 26 vs Schalke 3-0
16 May 26 @ Union Berlin 0-4
BM Bayern Munich WWDWW
18 Sept 26 vs Union Berlin 7-0
13 Sept 26 @ Elversberg 2-1
5 Sept 26 @ Schalke 0-0
28 Aug 26 vs Stuttgart 5-1
16 May 26 vs 1. FC Köln 5-1
Head-to-head: Augsburg v Bayern Munich
Full H2H history → W 24 Jan 26
Bayern 1-2 AugsburgBundesliga
L 30 Aug 25
Augsburg 2-3 BayernBundesliga
W/D/L shown from Augsburg's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · AUG | X | 2 · BM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 11.10 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| Marathon Bet | 10.50 | 7.80 | 1.22 |
| Codere (IT) | 9.40 | 7.80 | 1.23 |
| Nordic Bet | 11.50 | 6.60 | 1.23 |
| Tipico | 8.50 | 8.20 | 1.22 |
| Pinnacle | 8.47 | 8.21 | 1.22 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: match preview
Bayern Munich head to the WWK Arena as heavy favourites against Augsburg in this Bundesliga fixture, and the odds leave little doubt about how the market sees it. A price of 1.22 on Bayern implies a win probability of roughly 82 percent, while Augsburg at 11.2 reflects just under 9 percent, with the draw at 9.35 adding around 11 percent. Those numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, though prices are not guarantees. Rather than back the outright winner at such short odds, our model looks elsewhere for value, flagging Under 4.5 goals at 1.98 as the recommended angle, built on a 56 percent implied confidence and a 10.13 percent edge against the market's pricing of that market.
Verdict: The Under 4.5 goals selection at 1.98 stands out as the most data-supported angle here, with a modest edge over market pricing. It is not a high-certainty bet at 56 percent implied confidence, so it should be treated as a measured value play rather than a near-sure outcome, sized with normal bankroll discipline.
Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
All Bundesliga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
| 11 Oct 13:30 | 1. FC Köln v Borussia Monchengladbach | 2.04 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Bundesliga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?+
Our tip is Under 4.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 56% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in the Augsburg vs Bayern Munich match?+
Bayern Munich are strong favourites, priced at 1.22, which implies an approximate 82 percent win probability according to the market.
What are the odds on a draw between Augsburg and Bayern Munich?+
The draw is priced at 9.35, implying a probability of around 11 percent based on the odds given.
Is there value in this fixture according to the model?+
The model does not flag value in the straight match-result market but identifies value in Under 4.5 goals at 1.98, showing a 10.13 percent edge with 56 percent implied confidence.
When does the match kick off?+
Augsburg vs Bayern Munich takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.