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Français ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 Sat · 21:30
Our tip
Atletico Paranaense to win
Odds
2.12
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 49%
AI Value edge 3.53% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Atletico Paranaense are the market favourites at 2.11, implying about a 47% chance, well ahead of Bragantino-SP at 3.75 (roughly 27%).
02
The draw is priced competitively at 3.4, around a 29% implied probability, sitting close to the away side's chances.
03
Our model's recommended bet, Atletico Paranaense to win, carries a modest value edge of 3.09% with a market-implied confidence of 49%.
04
No value picks cleared our threshold against the market consensus, underlining that the edge here is slim rather than pronounced.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 42%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.6% | 6.43 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.33 |
| 2-0 | 11.5% | 8.68 |
| 0-0 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.24 |
| 0-1 | 8.1% | 12.33 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.48 and 0.77. These six scorelines cover 67% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
AP Atletico Paranaense DWWWW
30 Jul 26 @ Corinthians 0-0
25 Jul 26 vs Internacional 2-0
23 Jul 26 @ São Paulo 2-1
30 May 26 vs Mirassol 1-0
24 May 26 @ Clube do Remo 2-1
BRA Bragantino-SP DDWWW
26 Jul 26 vs Coritiba 0-0
17 Jul 26 @ Fluminense 1-1
31 May 26 vs Internacional 3-1
24 May 26 @ Vasco da Gama 3-0
17 May 26 vs Vitória 2-0
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense v Bragantino-SP
D 25 Feb 26
Bragantino 1-1 ParanaenseBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Atletico Paranaense's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 2.12 | 1xBet | 47.2% |
| Bragantino-SP | 3.73 | 1xBet | 26.8% |
| Draw | 3.40 | Coolbet | 29.4% |
Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino-SP: match preview
This Brasileirão fixture pits Atletico Paranaense against Bragantino-SP, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Atletico Paranaense are priced at 2.11 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 47%, marking them as clear home favourites. Bragantino-SP, by contrast, sit out at 3.75, or around 27% in implied terms, reflecting the market's view of them as underdogs on the road. The draw is priced at 3.4 with Coolbet, worth about 29% implied. Our model leans towards Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.11, assigning a market-implied confidence of 49% and flagging a modest value edge of 3.09% over the price on offer. That edge is slim rather than emphatic, so this is a lean on the favourite rather than a standout opportunity in the Brazilian top flight.
Verdict: The recommended play is Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.11, backed by a small 3.09% value edge and near-even implied confidence. It is a reasonable lean on the home favourite, but with prices this tight it carries real risk. Stake responsibly and treat it as a modest-value pick.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 19:00 | Grêmio v Sao Paulo | 2.45 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| 8 Aug 21:30 | Remo v Atletico Mineiro | 3.08 | 3.40 | 2.48 |
| 8 Aug 23:30 | Coritiba v Chapecoense | 1.66 | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| 9 Aug 00:00 | Botafogo v Fluminense | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.93 |
| 9 Aug 14:00 | Cruzeiro v Mirassol | 1.72 | 3.85 | 5.32 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Palmeiras v Internacional | 1.64 | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:00 | Bahia v Vasco da Gama | 1.94 | 3.76 | 4.30 |
| 9 Aug 21:30 | Santos v Atletico Paranaense | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.61 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | +22 | 47 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 20 | 11 | 6 | 3 | +19 | 39 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | +9 | 37 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | +5 | 34 |
| 5 | Bahia | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | +4 | 32 |
| 6 | Bragantino | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | +6 | 31 |
| 7 | Cruzeiro | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | +2 | 29 |
| 9 | Corinthians | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | Mineiro | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | -3 | 27 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | +2 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitória | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | -9 | 26 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 23 |
| 15 | Santos | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 16 | Internacional | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -4 | 22 |
| 17 | Grêmio | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -4 | 22 |
| 18 | Vasco da Gama | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 21 |
| 19 | Clube do Remo | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 21 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | -22 | 10 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino-SP?+
Our tip is Atletico Paranaense to win at odds of 2.12, with a 49% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino-SP?+
Atletico Paranaense are the favourites at 2.11 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 47% chance. Bragantino-SP are the underdogs at 3.75, around 27% implied.
What are the odds for a draw in this match?+
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Coolbet, which equates to a market-implied probability of about 29%.
Is there any betting value in this fixture?+
Our model flags a modest value edge of 3.09% on Atletico Paranaense to win at 2.11, with implied confidence of 49%. No selections cleared our higher value threshold, so the edge is slim.
When does the match kick off?+
Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino-SP takes place Sat · 21:30 in the Brasileirão.