Champions League · Tue · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Atlético Madrid are priced shortest at 2.38 (about 42 percent implied), making them the market's modest favourites over Manchester United at 2.94 (about 34 percent).
The draw at 3.98 implies roughly 25 percent, keeping all three match-result outcomes within plausible reach based on pricing alone.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.21 corresponds to about a 45 percent implied probability from the model, but carries a value edge of -1.41 percent versus fair pricing.
No other markets returned a value edge above the site's threshold for this fixture.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AM | X | 2 · MU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.96 | 2.97 |
| Betfair | 2.32 | 4.00 | 2.94 |
| Coolbet | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.30 | 3.75 | 2.95 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.28 | 3.86 | 2.89 |
| GTbets | 2.31 | 3.79 | 2.83 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atlético Madrid host Manchester United in a Champions League fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them overwhelming favourites. Best-priced odds have Atlético at 2.38, which implies roughly a 42 percent chance of victory, ahead of Manchester United at 2.94 (about 34 percent) and the draw at 3.98 (around 25 percent). That spread points to a competitive match rather than a lopsided one, with all three outcomes carrying realistic backing from bookmakers. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 3.5 goals at 2.21 as its recommended angle, translating to an implied probability near 45 percent. Notably, this pick carries a slightly negative value edge against the model's own estimate, so it is presented as a data-led option rather than a standout value play. No other selections cleared our value threshold for this fixture.
Verdict: The model's lean toward Over 3.5 goals at 2.21 reflects a market view of an open, high-scoring contest, but its negative value edge means it should not be treated as a confident edge play. Bettors considering it should weigh the modest implied probability against the lack of a genuine pricing advantage.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Arsenal v Lille | 1.33 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | 1.32 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | 2.42 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 2.08 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 26.00 | 14.70 | 1.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Galatasaray v Barcelona | 9.30 | 6.50 | 1.35 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 45% confidence rating.
Atlético Madrid are priced as favourites at 2.38, implying about a 42 percent chance, compared with Manchester United at 2.94 (about 34 percent) and the draw at 3.98 (about 25 percent).
The draw is priced at 3.98, implying roughly 25 percent, but no value edge above the site's threshold was identified for this outcome based on the data provided.
The model highlights Over 3.5 goals at 2.21, implying about a 45 percent probability, though this comes with a slightly negative value edge of -1.41 percent, meaning it is a data-based suggestion rather than a clear value bet.
Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United takes place Tue · 19:00 in the Champions League.
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