Liga MX · Sun · 03:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Tigres are the market favourites at 2.2, implying around a 45% chance, ahead of Atlas at 3.37 (roughly 30%).
The draw at 3.40 is priced almost level with the Atlas win, suggesting the market sees a tight contest behind the favourite.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.1 carries a market-implied confidence of 45% but a negative value edge of -4.84%.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus for this fixture, pointing to fairly efficient pricing.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 3.40 | Tipico | 29.4% |
| Tigres | 2.20 | Coolbet | 45.5% |
| Draw | 3.40 | Coolbet | 29.4% |
This Liga MX clash sees Atlas host Tigres, and the market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Tigres are priced at 2.2 with Coolbet, translating to an implied probability of roughly 45%, marking them as clear favourites on the road. Atlas, by contrast, sit out at 3.37 (1xBet), around a 30% chance, while the draw is available at 3.40 (Coolbet), close to 29%. Those numbers describe a game the bookmakers see as tilted toward Tigres but far from a foregone conclusion, with the home win and draw priced almost identically. Our model looks past the winner and toward the total, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.1 with William Hill as the pick of interest. That said, the value edge on this selection comes in negative at -4.84%, so it reads more as a lean than a standout opportunity in the current prices.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 2.1, but with a negative value edge of -4.84% this is a marginal call rather than a strong signal. Treat it as a modest-interest selection, size stakes carefully, and be aware the total may not settle in your favour.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 23:00 | Atlante FC v Toluca | 5.90 | 4.20 | 1.58 |
| 16 Aug 01:00 | Monterrey v FC Juárez | 1.56 | 4.40 | 5.75 |
| 16 Aug 18:00 | Pumas v Querétaro | 1.64 | 4.20 | 5.05 |
| 16 Aug 23:00 | América v Atlético San Luis | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| 17 Aug 01:00 | Santos Laguna v Guadalajara | 5.25 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| 17 Aug 03:00 | Tijuana v Cruz Azul | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| 18 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v León | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| 18 Aug 03:00 | Pachuca v Puebla | 1.40 | 4.75 | 8.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.10, with a 45% confidence rating.
Tigres are the favourites, priced at 2.2 versus 3.37 for Atlas. That implies roughly a 45% chance for Tigres against about 30% for the home side.
The draw is available at 3.40 with Coolbet, an implied probability of around 29%, almost identical to the Atlas win price.
No selection cleared our value threshold against market consensus. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.1 actually carries a negative edge of -4.84%, so value here is limited.
Atlas vs Tigres takes place Sun · 03:00 in the Liga MX.
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