MLS · Sat · 23:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Atlanta United FC are favourites at 1.9 (around 53% implied), well ahead of New York Red Bulls at 3.85 (around 26%).
The draw is priced at 4.2 with Coolbet, implying roughly 24% and making a stalemate the least likely outcome of the three.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.14 carries a negative value edge of -3.13%, so it sits below the value threshold.
No value picks cleared the threshold against market consensus, suggesting the prices are broadly in line with the model.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.55 | +6.0% | 23% | 58 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 1.83 | Coolbet | 54.6% |
| New York Red Bulls | 3.95 | Betsson | 25.3% |
| Draw | 4.55 | 1xBet | 22.0% |
This MLS meeting between Atlanta United FC and New York Red Bulls sees the home side installed as clear favourites. Atlanta are priced at 1.9 with Betsson, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 53%. New York Red Bulls are the outsiders at 3.85 (1xBet), implying around 26%, while the draw sits at 4.2 with Coolbet, about 24% in probability terms. The gap between the two prices signals that bookmakers lean firmly towards Atlanta rather than viewing this as a coin toss. Our model, however, steps away from the match-result market and instead looks to goals. The recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.14 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 45%. Note the value edge here is negative at -3.13%, meaning the price offers no clear mathematical advantage over the market's own read of a high-scoring game.
Verdict: The model points to Over 3.5 goals at 2.14, but with a negative value edge of -3.13% and roughly 45% implied confidence, this is a speculative, higher-variance play rather than a value spot. Treat it accordingly and stake responsibly within your usual limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 20:30 | New England Revolution v Houston Dynamo | 2.55 | 3.86 | 2.82 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Orlando City SC v FC Cincinnati | 2.33 | 4.56 | 2.75 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | CF Montreal v D.C. United | 2.25 | 3.97 | 3.20 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Toronto FC v New England Revolution | 2.35 | 3.96 | 3.05 |
| 15 Aug 23:30 | Charlotte FC v Columbus Crew SC | 2.17 | 4.04 | 3.35 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Nashville SC v Inter Miami CF | 2.15 | 4.28 | 3.10 |
| 16 Aug 00:30 | Houston Dynamo v LA Galaxy | 1.74 | 4.44 | 4.75 |
| 16 Aug 01:30 | Colorado Rapids v Sporting Kansas City | 1.41 | 5.71 | 7.75 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.14, with a 45% confidence rating.
Atlanta United FC are favourites at 1.9 with Betsson, an implied probability of about 53%. New York Red Bulls are the outsiders at 3.85.
The draw is priced at 4.2 with Coolbet, implying roughly 24%. That makes it the least likely of the three match-result outcomes based on the odds.
No pick cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 3.5 goals at 2.14 actually shows a negative value edge of -3.13%, so it offers no mathematical advantage over the market price.
Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls takes place Sat · 23:30 in the MLS.
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