Premier League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Brentford are priced shorter (2.5) than Aston Villa (2.92), implying the market gives the away side a slight edge at around 40 percent versus 34 percent.
The draw at 3.66 implies roughly 27 percent probability, keeping all three outcomes within a fairly tight range and pointing to a closely matched fixture on paper.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.17 carries a 3.34 percent value edge against the market's implied pricing, the only selection flagged as offering value in this preview.
No value picks were identified in the standard match-result market, meaning the odds on Villa, Brentford, and the draw are viewed as fairly priced by the model.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.32 |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | 11.49 |
| 0-1 | 8.7% | 11.55 |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | 11.99 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.03 |
| 0-0 | 6.3% | 15.95 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.39 and 1.38. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Aston Villa's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AV | X | 2 · BRE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.68 | 3.60 | 2.74 |
| Betfair | 2.76 | 3.60 | 2.58 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.60 | 3.65 | 2.63 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.60 | 3.65 | 2.63 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.60 | 3.65 | 2.63 |
| Coolbet | 2.72 | 3.57 | 2.55 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Aston Villa host Brentford in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Best-priced odds have Brentford at 2.5, which implies a win probability of roughly 40 percent, compared with Aston Villa's 2.92 (about 34 percent) and the draw at 3.66 (about 27 percent). That gap of a few percentage points suggests a competitive match rather than a clear mismatch, with no side priced as a heavy favourite. Rather than picking a match-result winner, our model points to the goals market, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.17. This selection carries a model-implied confidence of 48 percent and a calculated value edge of 3.34 percent versus the market price, making it the most notable angle from the available data for this contest.
Verdict: The data points to a tight contest with no dominant favourite, so the match-result market offers limited clear value. The Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.17 stands out with a modest edge, but a 48 percent implied confidence still leaves considerable uncertainty, so this should be treated as a measured, risk-aware selection rather than a strong lean.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
| 11 Oct 15:30 | Liverpool v Manchester City | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.19, with a 45% confidence rating.
Based on the best available odds, Brentford are the marginal favourite at 2.5, implying about 40 percent win probability, compared with Aston Villa at 2.92 (about 34 percent).
The draw is priced at 3.66, which implies a probability of roughly 27 percent.
No value was found in the standard match-result market, but the model flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.17 as a value angle, with a 3.34 percent edge and 48 percent implied confidence.
Aston Villa vs Brentford takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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