Champions League · Wed · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Real Madrid are priced at 1.95, implying a win probability above 51 percent, making them the clear market favourite over AS Roma.
AS Roma's 4.25 price and the drawn result at 4.26 are almost identical, implying near-equal odds of around 23.5 percent for each outcome.
The Over 3.5 goals selection at 2.15 carries a modelled confidence of 46 percent but shows a slightly negative value edge of -0.56 percent against the market price.
Roma's outright win price shows a positive value edge of 5.85 percent, with a fair probability estimate of 25 percent versus the market-implied 23.5 percent.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma to win | 3.80 | +4.7% | 28% | 59 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AR | X | 2 · RM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.60 | 4.03 | 2.04 |
| Coolbet | 3.40 | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 3.45 | 3.65 | 2.12 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.80 | 3.90 | 1.92 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.50 | 3.92 | 1.99 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.40 | 3.95 | 2.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Real Madrid head to the Stadio Olimpico as clear favourites to beat AS Roma in this Champions League fixture, with the market pricing them at 1.95 for a straight win. That translates to an implied probability of just over 51 percent, well ahead of Roma's 4.25 (around 23.5 percent) and the draw at 4.26 (also close to 23.5 percent). The tight gap between Roma's price and the draw suggests bookmakers see the hosts as roughly as likely to lose as they are to draw or spring an upset. Away from the outright market, the model's headline recommendation looks at goals rather than the result, flagging Over 3.5 goals at 2.15 with a modelled confidence of 46 percent, though the calculated edge on that price is marginally negative. A separate value angle on Roma's match-win price stands out, with the market's implied 23.5 percent chance running below the model's fair estimate of 25 percent.
Verdict: The data points to Real Madrid as the strong favourite, while the highlighted Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.15 offers a near break-even edge rather than a clear statistical advantage. Roma's outright price shows a modest value gap versus its fair probability, but with Real Madrid still the more likely winner by market pricing, any bet on Roma or the goals market carries meaningful risk and should be sized with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 16:45 | RC Lens v Sporting Lisbon | 2.47 | 3.95 | 2.86 |
| 13 Oct 16:45 | Sabah FK v Slavia Praha | 3.72 | 4.00 | 2.06 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Arsenal v Lille | 1.33 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | 1.32 | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Villarreal v Napoli | 2.42 | 3.75 | 3.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven | 2.08 | 4.30 | 3.40 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | 26.00 | 14.70 | 1.12 |
| 13 Oct 19:00 | Atlético Madrid v Manchester United | 2.35 | 4.00 | 2.97 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSG | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 | Bayern | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 | Man United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 | Como 1907 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Man City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | RC Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dortmund | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Liverpool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 13 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 15 | Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 | PAE AEK | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 17 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Shaktar | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Lille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Slavia Praha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atleti | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Inter | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 29 | Galatasaray | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | Viking | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Porto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Feyenoord | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 34 | Sabah FK | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 35 | Sl. Bratislava | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 | Bodø/Glimt | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.10, with a 47% confidence rating.
Real Madrid are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.95 which implies a win probability of just over 51 percent, compared with 23.5 percent for AS Roma.
The draw is priced at 4.26, implying an approximate 23.5 percent probability, almost identical to Roma's own win price of 4.25.
The data shows a positive value edge of 5.85 percent on Roma's outright win price, since the model's fair probability of 25 percent is higher than the market-implied 23.5 percent. The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.15, however, shows a slightly negative edge of -0.56 percent.
AS Roma vs Real Madrid takes place Wed · 19:00 in the Champions League.
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