Ligue 1 · Sat · 18:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Monaco are priced at 1.99, implying just over a 50 percent chance of victory according to the market
Toulouse (3.90) and the draw (3.88) are priced almost identically, both implying roughly 25-26 percent probability
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100 percent by about 1.66 points, reflecting normal bookmaker margin
The Over 2.75 goals selection at 1.88 shows a 3.17 percent value edge against the model's own 55 percent confidence estimate, the only pick flagged above threshold
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.8% | 10.22 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.84 |
| 3-1 | 6.4% | 15.58 |
| 1-2 | 6.1% | 16.42 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.99 and 1.25. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse to win | 4.70 | +3.1% | 22% | 55 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from AS Monaco's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AM | X | 2 · TOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 4.11 | 4.51 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.77 | 3.95 | 4.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.77 | 3.95 | 4.70 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.77 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 4.03 | 4.31 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Ligue 1 action brings AS Monaco and Toulouse together, with the betting markets making Monaco the clear favourites for this one. Best prices have Monaco at 1.99, which implies a win probability of just over 50 percent, while Toulouse sit out at 3.90 (around 25.6 percent) and the draw is priced similarly at 3.88 (about 25.8 percent). That tight gap between Toulouse and the draw suggests bookmakers see this as a genuinely competitive away trip for Monaco rather than a formality, even with the hosts favoured. Away from the match-result market, the model's standout angle is in the goals market: Over 2.75 goals is priced at 1.88 with Pinnacle, carrying a model-implied confidence of 55 percent and a calculated value edge of 3.17 percent, making it the most notable recommendation from the numbers available for this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended angle is Over 2.75 goals at 1.88, backed by a modest 3.17 percent value edge and 55 percent model confidence. This is not an overwhelming edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-confidence selection rather than a strong lean, and staked with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:45 | Marseille v Paris Saint Germain | 7.40 | 5.50 | 1.46 |
| 9 Oct 18:45 | RC Lens v Lyon | 2.26 | 3.85 | 3.25 |
| 10 Oct 15:15 | Lille v Le Havre | 1.48 | 4.88 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Brest v Angers | 2.00 | 3.85 | 3.95 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Lorient v Paris FC | 3.04 | 3.60 | 2.48 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | 1.12 | 13.40 | 24.00 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Nice v Strasbourg | 2.29 | 3.72 | 3.23 |
| 11 Oct 15:15 | Rennes v Auxerre | 1.46 | 5.24 | 7.50 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 2 | Olympique Lyon | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 | Paris FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +5 | 11 |
| 4 | Lille | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 5 | Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | PSG | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Brest | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 | Marseille | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 | Troyes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.75 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 52% confidence rating.
AS Monaco are favourites at 1.99, which implies just over a 50 percent win probability, compared to Toulouse at 3.90 (about 25.6 percent).
The draw is available at 3.88, implying a probability of roughly 25.8 percent, very close to Toulouse's own implied win chance.
No match-result value picks met the threshold, but the model flags Over 2.75 goals at 1.88 as a value play with a 3.17 percent edge and 55 percent implied confidence.
AS Monaco vs Toulouse takes place Sat · 18:45 in the Ligue 1.
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