Premier League · Sat · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Arsenal's 1.33 price implies a win probability of roughly 75 percent, marking them as strong favourites in this Premier League meeting.
Leeds United's 11.75 price implies only about 8.5 percent, reflecting minimal market expectation of an away win or upset.
The draw at 5.65 implies close to 18 percent, offering a secondary alternative for those wary of backing a heavy favourite outright.
The Under 2.5 goals selection at 2.28 shows a value edge of nearly 8 percent, with model confidence of 47 percent exceeding the market-implied 44 percent.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.7% | 6.80 |
| 2-0 | 12.6% | 7.96 |
| 1-1 | 10.9% | 9.14 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.70 |
| 0-0 | 8.6% | 11.61 |
| 3-0 | 7.2% | 13.97 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.71 and 0.74. These six scorelines cover 63% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Arsenal's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ARS | X | 2 · LU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 5.43 | 10.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.32 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.32 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| Coolbet | 1.34 | 5.30 | 9.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.33 | 5.25 | 9.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Arsenal host Leeds United in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. Best available odds price Arsenal at 1.33, which implies a win probability of roughly 75 percent, while Leeds United sit out at 11.75, translating to just under 9 percent. The draw is priced at 5.65, implying around 18 percent. These figures point to a heavily one-sided match on paper, at least in terms of market sentiment. Away from the result market, our model highlights value in the goals market, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.28, with a modelled confidence of 47 percent against an implied probability of about 44 percent from the odds, giving a value edge close to 8 percent. This suggests the goals total may be underpriced relative to how the market has set the result odds.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 2.28, supported by a modelled edge of almost 8 percent over the market-implied probability. This is not a certainty and goals markets can swing on a single moment, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection within a balanced staking approach.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
| 11 Oct 15:30 | Liverpool v Manchester City | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.19, with a 45% confidence rating.
Arsenal are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.33, which implies a win probability of around 75 percent, compared to Leeds United at 11.75.
The draw is available at 5.65, which implies a probability of roughly 18 percent based on the current market odds.
The main match-result market shows no picks above the value threshold, but the model flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.28 as having a value edge of about 8 percent versus its implied probability.
Arsenal vs Leeds United takes place Sat · 11:30 in the Premier League.
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