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አማርኛ ⚽ Primeira Liga 🕒 16 Aug 2026
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
2.16
WonResult
4-0Final score
+1.16uProfit
48%Pre-match conf.
0%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at GTbets
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Arouca are the favourites at 2.3 (about 43% implied), but only narrowly ahead of the field.
02
Moreirense at 3.33 and the draw at 3.3 are priced almost identically, both near 30%, showing a tight matchup.
03
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.16 carries a slim value edge of about 3.24% and an implied confidence near 48%.
04
No match-result value picks cleared our threshold, so the goals market is the only flagged angle.
Team form
ARO Arouca WWWWD
16 Aug 26 vs Moreirense 4-0
8 Aug 26 @ Vitória SC 1-0
16 May 26 vs Tondela 3-1
11 May 26 @ Gil Vicente 3-1
2 May 26 vs Santa Clara 2-2
MF Moreirense FC LDDLW
16 Aug 26 @ Arouca 0-4
9 Aug 26 vs Braga 2-2
16 May 26 vs AVS 0-0
11 May 26 @ Tondela 0-2
2 May 26 vs Amadora 3-2
Head-to-head: Arouca v Moreirense FC
Full H2H history → W 16 Aug 26
Arouca 4-0 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
W 21 Mar 26
Moreirense 0-1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
L 2 Nov 25
Arouca 0-2 MoreirensePrimeira Liga
W/D/L shown from Arouca's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Arouca vs Moreirense FC: pre-match preview
Arouca host Moreirense FC in the Primeira Liga, and the market gives the home side a modest edge in this one. Arouca are priced at 2.3, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 43%, while Moreirense sit at 3.33, or about 30%. The draw is close behind at 3.3, again near 30%, underlining how tight the bookmakers see the outcome despite Arouca's favouritism. These are not the prices of a runaway home win; instead they point to a game the market rates as genuinely competitive. Our model looks past the result market entirely and lands on Over 2.5 goals at 2.16, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 48% and a small value edge of about 3.24%. That reflects an expectation of an open contest with goals, rather than a firm read on which team prevails. The margins here are slim, so treat this as a lean rather than a strong signal.
Verdict: The pick is Over 2.5 goals at 2.16, backed by an estimated 48% confidence and a small 3.24% edge. It is a marginal value lean rather than a strong call, so stake modestly and keep expectations measured given how tight the underlying prices are.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 4-0, for a flat-stake return of +1.16 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Primeira Liga fixtures
All Primeira Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 19:15 | Gil Vicente v Casa Pia | 1.76 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| 28 Aug 19:15 | Rio Ave FC v Sporting Lisbon | 9.50 | 5.88 | 1.32 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Alverca v Santa Clara | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.68 |
| 29 Aug 14:30 | Arouca v CS Maritimo | 2.45 | 3.23 | 3.20 |
| 29 Aug 17:00 | Académico de Viseu v FC Porto | 10.00 | 5.56 | 1.34 |
| 30 Aug 14:30 | Nacional v CF Estrela | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 17:00 | Casa Pia v Moreirense FC | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:30 | Famalicão v Gil Vicente | 1.95 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primeira Liga standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 7 |
| 3 | Marítimo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Arouca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 6 | SL Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 4 |
| 7 | CD Nacional | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 9 | Vitória SC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Amadora | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Acad. Viseu | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 13 | Braga | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Famalicão | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Alverca | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 17 | Estoril Praia | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | Casa Pia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Arouca vs Moreirense FC?+
Our tip was Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.16.
Who is the favourite for Arouca vs Moreirense FC?+
Arouca are the favourites at 2.3, an implied probability of roughly 43%. Moreirense FC are the outsiders at 3.33, around 30%.
What is the draw priced at?+
The draw is available at 3.3 with Coolbet, implying about a 30% chance. That is almost level with Moreirense's price, reflecting a closely rated fixture.
Is there any value in this match?+
Our model flagged Over 2.5 goals at 2.16 with a small value edge of about 3.24% and roughly 48% confidence. No match-result selection met our value threshold.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 4-0 (+1.16u at flat stakes).