Greek Super League · Sun · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Aris Thessaloniki are priced at 1.77, implying a win probability of about 56%, making them the clear market favourite.
Volos FC's best price of 4.9 implies roughly 20% probability, but the model's fair-value estimate of 23% suggests a 10.93% edge on that price.
The draw at 3.6 implies close to 28%, keeping it a live outcome despite the home side's favourite status.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.05 carries a market-implied confidence of 46% and a negative edge of -5.59%, meaning the model does not see clear value at that specific price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 13.1% | 7.65 |
| 2-0 | 12.3% | 8.13 |
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.74 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.35 |
| 3-0 | 7.7% | 12.97 |
| 0-0 | 7.0% | 14.39 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.88 and 0.79. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volos FC to win | 5.15 | +9.8% | 21% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AT | X | 2 · VF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.60 | 4.63 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.65 | 3.55 | 5.15 |
| Betsson | 1.65 | 3.55 | 5.15 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.30 | 4.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.62 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Aris Thessaloniki host Volos FC in a Greek Super League fixture where the betting market leans heavily toward the home side. A best price of 1.77 on Aris implies a win probability of roughly 56%, while Volos at 4.9 is priced at around 20%, with the draw at 3.6 sitting near 28% implied. That gap points to a clear home favourite, though the draw and away price still leave room for interest. Away from the result market, the site's model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.05 as its recommended angle, an option built around goal-scoring potential rather than the outright winner. Meanwhile, a separate value comparison flags Volos FC's 4.9 price as offering a notable gap between the bookmaker's odds and the model's own fair-price estimate, worth noting even though the home side remains the stronger market pick overall.
Verdict: The data points to Aris as clear favourites, with Volos offering a statistically notable price gap versus its fair value. The model's own recommended goals bet, Over 2.5 at 2.05, actually shows a negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong lean. Bankroll discipline is advised given the mixed signals.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos FC | 2.11 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05, with a 46% confidence rating.
Aris Thessaloniki are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.77, which implies a win probability of about 56%.
The best available draw price is 3.6, implying an outcome probability of roughly 28%.
The model estimates Volos FC's fair win probability at 23% against a best market price of 4.9, producing a 10.93% edge, though they remain clear underdogs on the scoreline market.
Aris Thessaloniki vs Volos FC takes place Sun · 16:00 in the Greek Super League.
English