Süper Lig · Sun · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Amed SK are favourites at 2.12 (about 47% implied), with Erzurum BB the outsiders at 3.3 (about 30%).
The draw is priced at 3.6, implying roughly 28%, reflecting a competitive rather than lopsided matchup.
Our model flags the draw as a value pick: fair probability of 34% versus the 3.6 offered, an edge of 22.12%.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 sits near 49% confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge of -5.54%.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 3.60 | +22.4% | 34% | 82 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amed SK | 2.25 | Coolbet | 44.4% |
| Erzurum BB | 3.10 | Coolbet | 32.3% |
| Draw | 3.60 | Coolbet | 27.8% |
Amed SK host Erzurum BB in this Süper Lig fixture, and the market leans toward the home side. Coolbet prices Amed SK at 2.12, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 47%, while Erzurum BB sit at 3.3, or about 30%. That is a clear but not overwhelming home lean, leaving room for either an away result or a stalemate. The draw is quoted at 3.6, implying around 28%, which points to a fixture the market considers competitive rather than one-sided. Our model's recommended bet is Under 2.5 goals at 1.93, carrying market-implied confidence of about 49%, though it reads as a slightly negative value edge of -5.54%. Separately, the draw stands out on our value screen, with a fair probability of 34% against the offered 3.6 price, an edge of 22.12%. Both angles suggest a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a comfortable home win.
Verdict: The recommended play is Under 2.5 goals at 1.93, reflecting expectations of a tight, low-scoring game. Confidence sits near 49% but the value edge is marginally negative, so treat it as a lean rather than a strong call. The draw offers the standout value angle. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 18:30 | Galatasaray v Akhisar Belediyespor | 1.20 | 7.29 | 12.50 |
| 15 Aug 16:00 | Kasimpasa SK v Trabzonspor | 4.10 | 3.83 | 1.90 |
| 15 Aug 16:00 | Torku Konyaspor v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.56 | 3.30 | 3.14 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Genclerbirligi SK v Fenerbahce | 6.81 | 4.58 | 1.50 |
| 15 Aug 18:30 | Gazişehir Gaziantep v Alanyaspor | 2.66 | 3.50 | 2.71 |
| 16 Aug 16:00 | Basaksehir v Kocaelispor | 1.55 | 4.40 | 6.75 |
| 16 Aug 18:30 | Besiktas JK v Eyüpspor | 1.35 | 5.70 | 8.95 |
| 17 Aug 18:30 | Samsunspor v Goztepe | 2.20 | 3.43 | 3.52 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.82, with a 52% confidence rating.
Amed SK are the favourites at 2.12 with Coolbet, implying roughly a 47% chance. Erzurum BB are priced at 3.3, around 30%.
The draw is available at 3.6 with Coolbet, which implies about a 28% probability. Our model rates its fair probability higher, at 34%.
Our value screen highlights the draw at 3.6 with a 22.12% edge against a fair probability of 34%. The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 1.93 has a slightly negative edge of -5.54%, so it is more of a lean.
Amed SK vs Erzurum BB takes place Sun · 18:30 in the Süper Lig.
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