Liga Profesional · Sat · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
The prices are almost level: Aldosivi at 2.91, Tigre at 2.84 and the draw at 2.80, so the market sees no strong favourite.
Implied probabilities land near 34% for Aldosivi, 35% for Tigre and 36% for the draw, underlining how open the result is.
The draw is actually the shortest of the three outcomes at 2.80, reflecting expectations of a close game.
The recommended Over 1.5 goals pick at 1.67 has a negative value edge of about -4.88%, meaning it is priced slightly against the bettor rather than offering surplus value.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 2.98 | 1xBet | 33.6% |
| CA Tigre BA | 2.85 | 1xBet | 35.1% |
| Draw | 2.73 | 1xBet | 36.6% |
This Liga Profesional clash between Aldosivi Mar del Plata and CA Tigre BA is one the market can barely separate. Aldosivi are priced at 2.91, Tigre at 2.84 and the draw at 2.80, translating to implied probabilities of roughly 34%, 35% and 36% respectively before the bookmaker margin is stripped out. In practical terms, all three outcomes sit within a couple of percentage points of one another, which points to a genuinely tight contest rather than a clear favourite. With the result so open, our model steers away from the match-result markets and instead looks to a goals line. The recommended bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.67, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 57%. It is worth noting this pick shows a negative value edge of about -4.88%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. Treat the fixture as finely balanced and stake responsibly.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 1.5 goals at 1.67, backed by around 57% implied confidence. It is a moderate-risk pick rather than a value play, since the price carries a slightly negative edge. With the match result itself a near coin-flip, keep stakes measured.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Aug 22:00 | Boca Juniors v Estudiantes | 2.16 | 3.10 | 4.34 |
| 6 Aug 00:15 | CA Tigre BA v Belgrano de Cordoba | 2.66 | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| 6 Aug 22:00 | Union Santa Fe v Lanus | 2.40 | 3.09 | 3.65 |
| 7 Aug 22:30 | Rosario Central v Aldosivi Mar del Plata | 1.55 | 3.90 | 8.60 |
| 8 Aug 00:45 | Independiente Rivadavia v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.56 | 4.02 | 7.80 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Atlético Tucuman v Sarmiento de Junin | 1.83 | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| 8 Aug 17:45 | Deportivo Riestra v Estudiantes | 3.40 | 2.72 | 2.62 |
| 8 Aug 20:00 | CA Tigre BA v River Plate | 3.42 | 3.05 | 2.38 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.25, with a 42% confidence rating.
There is no clear favourite. CA Tigre are marginally shortest at 2.84, with Aldosivi at 2.91 and the draw at 2.80, so the market rates all three outcomes as close.
The draw is priced at 2.80 with 1xBet, which is actually the shortest of the three match-result options and implies roughly a 36% chance.
No value pick cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 1.5 goals at 1.67 shows a negative value edge of about -4.88%, so it is a lean based on around 57% confidence rather than a value bet.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata vs CA Tigre BA takes place Sat · 17:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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