Liga Profesional · Tomorrow · 17:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Aldosivi and Atlético Tucumán share identical best odds of 2.83, implying near-equal 35 percent chances for each side.
The draw at 2.88 is priced only marginally behind the two teams, reinforcing the picture of a tightly matched contest.
The bookmaker overround across the three-way market sits close to 5 percent, typical for this type of even-money fixture.
Over 1.5 goals is the model's recommended angle at 1.61, but its implied 62 percent break-even probability sits above the model's own 59 percent estimate, producing a modest negative value edge of about -4.96 percent.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 15.4% | 6.51 |
| 0-1 | 15.3% | 6.52 |
| 1-0 | 13.4% | 7.44 |
| 1-1 | 13.4% | 7.45 |
| 0-2 | 7.7% | 13.05 |
| 1-2 | 6.7% | 14.93 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.88 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 72% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AMD | X | 2 · AT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 3.35 | 2.94 | 2.58 |
| Pinnacle | 3.24 | 2.98 | 2.54 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.20 | 2.95 | 2.51 |
| BetAnything | 3.20 | 2.95 | 2.51 |
| 1xBet | 3.19 | 2.96 | 2.49 |
| Betsson | 3.25 | 2.92 | 2.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata host Atlético Tucumán in a Liga Profesional fixture where the betting market can find almost nothing to separate the two sides. Best available odds have Aldosivi and Tucumán both priced at 2.83, with the draw close behind at 2.88. Converting those prices to implied probability puts each team at roughly 35 percent and the draw at just under 35 percent as well, meaning bookmakers see this as close to a genuine coin-flip across all three outcomes. With no clear favourite emerging from the match-result market, our model's attention shifts away from who wins and toward the goal-total market, where Over 1.5 goals is priced at 1.61. That price implies a break-even probability of about 62 percent, while the model itself assigns roughly 59 percent confidence, leaving a small negative edge rather than a standout value angle.
Verdict: With the match-result market essentially split three ways, there is no standout side to back on price. The Over 1.5 goals selection at 1.61 is the model's pick, but its own numbers show a slight negative edge, so this should be treated as a moderate-confidence lean rather than a clear value opportunity.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:45 | San Lorenzo v Boca Juniors | 17.50 | 3.10 | 1.65 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Platense v Newells Old Boys | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.95 |
| 20 Sept 20:00 | Rosario Central v Argentinos Juniors | 2.08 | 3.30 | 4.33 |
| 20 Sept 22:15 | Belgrano de Cordoba v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto | 1.48 | 4.20 | 10.50 |
| 21 Sept 00:30 | Velez Sarsfield BA v CA Tigre BA | 2.36 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| 21 Sept 22:00 | Barracas Central v Independiente Rivadavia | 3.45 | 3.01 | 2.50 |
| 22 Sept 00:15 | Lanus v Estudiantes | 2.26 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| 2 Oct 22:15 | Independiente v Instituto de Córdoba | 2.46 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.39, with a 40% confidence rating.
Neither side is a clear favourite. Both teams are priced at 2.83, implying almost identical probabilities of around 35 percent each, with the draw at 2.88 close behind.
The draw is available at 2.88, only slightly longer than the odds for either team winning, reflecting how evenly matched the market considers this fixture.
No outright value picks cleared the threshold for either team or the draw. The model's Over 1.5 goals selection at 1.61 actually shows a small negative edge of about -4.96 percent, so it is a confidence-based lean rather than a value bet.
Aldosivi Mar del Plata vs Atlético Tucuman takes place Tomorrow · 17:30 in the Liga Profesional.
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