English ⚽ La Liga 🕒 15 Sept 2026
Our tip
Alavés to win
Odds
2.35
LostResult
0-1Final score
-1.00uProfit
45%Pre-match conf.
+8.29%CLV
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at 1xBet
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Alavés are priced at 2.29, giving an implied win probability of about 44 percent, the strongest of the three outcomes.
02
The draw at 3.31 sits between the two teams' implied probabilities, priced at roughly 30 percent.
03
Valencia's best price of 3.62 implies about 28 percent, but the model's fair probability of 29 percent produces a 4.26 percent edge, flagging some value on the away win.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.38 carries only 41 percent implied confidence and a slightly negative edge of -1.52 percent, suggesting it is close to fairly priced rather than a standout value play.
Team form
ALA Alavés DLLWW
19 Sept 26 @ Athletic 0-0
15 Sept 26 vs Valencia 0-1
12 Sept 26 @ Santander 1-2
6 Sept 26 vs Osasuna 5-2
28 Aug 26 vs Villarreal 1-0
VAL Valencia WLLLL
15 Sept 26 @ Alavés 1-0
11 Sept 26 @ Sevilla FC 0-1
6 Sept 26 vs Barça 0-5
30 Aug 26 @ Deportivo 1-3
25 Aug 26 vs Real Betis 0-1
Head-to-head: Alavés v Valencia
Full H2H history → L 15 Sept 26
Alavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
L 8 Mar 26
Valencia 3-2 AlavésLa Liga
D 20 Oct 25
Alavés 0-0 ValenciaLa Liga
W/D/L shown from Alavés's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Alavés vs Valencia: pre-match preview
La Liga hosts Alavés against Valencia with the home side priced as clear favourites in the match-result market. At 2.29 with 1xBet, Alavés carries an implied probability of roughly 44 percent, well ahead of the draw at 3.31 (about 30 percent) and Valencia at 3.62 (about 28 percent). Those numbers suggest the market sees this as a competitive but home-leaning fixture rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the win markets, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 2.38 as its recommended angle, though it comes with a modest implied confidence of 41 percent and a slightly negative value edge, meaning the price is close to fair rather than clearly generous. Separately, Valencia's 3.62 price shows a value edge versus the model's fair probability estimate, worth noting for bettors comparing the outright markets.
Verdict: The model's headline pick, Over 2.5 goals at 2.38, is a moderate-risk selection with confidence just above 40 percent and a marginally negative edge, so it should not be treated as a strong value bet. The Valencia price of 3.62 shows a clearer statistical edge for bettors willing to back the underdog, though Alavés remain market favourites.
How it settled: the tip did not land — the match finished 0-1, for a flat-stake return of -1.00 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Our record on this fixture
L 15 Sept 26
Over 2.5 goalsfinal score 0-1
2.36 -1.00u Upcoming La Liga fixtures
All La Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 14:15 | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | 3.90 | 3.75 | 2.08 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primera Division standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for Alavés vs Valencia?+
Our tip was Alavés to win at odds of 2.35.
Who is favourite in the Alavés vs Valencia match?+
Alavés are the market favourites at odds of 2.29, which implies a win probability of around 44 percent, the highest of the three possible outcomes.
What is the draw priced at for this fixture?+
The draw is priced at 3.31 with 1xBet, implying a probability of roughly 30 percent, sitting between the two teams' win chances.
Is there value in backing Valencia to win?+
According to the model, Valencia's best available price of 3.62 offers a 4.26 percent edge over its fair probability estimate of 29 percent, making it the most notable value pick in the match-result market, though it remains the underdog price.
Did the tip win?+
The tip lost — final score 0-1 (-1.00u at flat stakes).