La Liga · Sat · 14:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Atlético Madrid are priced at 2.14 (about 46.7% implied probability), noticeably shorter than Alavés at 3.85 (about 26%), pointing to a clear market favourite.
The draw at 3.78 is priced almost identically to an Alavés win, implying the market sees a home upset and a stalemate as similarly likely outcomes.
The three match-result prices sum to just over 99%, indicating a tight bookmaker margin and reasonably efficient pricing across outcomes.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation carries a -1.59% value edge, meaning the odds offered are slightly below the model's assessed fair value rather than representing a clear market inefficiency.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.2% | 8.22 |
| 0-1 | 9.3% | 10.79 |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 11.61 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.66 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 12.55 |
| 0-0 | 6.6% | 15.22 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.31 and 1.41. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Alavés's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ALA | X | 2 · AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.82 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.08 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.08 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.60 | 3.55 | 2.05 |
| Coolbet | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.74 | 3.57 | 1.98 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Atlético Madrid travel to face Alavés in a La Liga fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Best prices have Atlético at 2.14, which implies a win probability of roughly 46.7 percent, well ahead of Alavés at 3.85 (about 26 percent) and the draw at 3.78 (around 26.5 percent). That gap suggests bookmakers see this as a moderately one-sided contest without treating Alavés as a non-factor at home. Away from the result market, the model's featured angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.91, priced with an implied probability near 52 percent. The edge here is described as slightly negative, meaning the recommended price does not comfortably beat the model's own fair-value estimate, so this leans toward a measured, rather than a standout, selection for goal markets.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.91 reflects a roughly 52% model-implied chance of a high-scoring game, but the negative value edge means it is not a clear-cut market mispricing. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk consideration rather than a confidently backed value play, and bankroll discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 19:00 | Valencia v Real Sociedad | 3.18 | 3.45 | 2.58 |
| 9 Oct 19:00 | Málaga v Espanyol | 2.50 | 3.38 | 3.13 |
| 10 Oct 12:00 | Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Bilbao | 3.20 | 3.51 | 2.40 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Barcelona v Getafe | 1.07 | 24.00 | 55.00 |
| 10 Oct 19:00 | Real Madrid v Villarreal | 1.27 | 7.50 | 11.30 |
| 11 Oct 12:00 | Elche CF v Celta Vigo | 3.03 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| 11 Oct 14:15 | Real Sociedad v Deportivo La Coruña | 1.97 | 3.75 | 4.21 |
| 11 Oct 16:30 | Real Betis v CA Osasuna | 1.61 | 4.47 | 5.90 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barça | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 | Atleti | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 | Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 | Alavés | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportivo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 8 |
| 9 | Athletic | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Celta | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | Málaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.91, with a 52% confidence rating.
Atlético Madrid are the clear market favourites at 2.14, implying about a 46.7% win probability, compared with Alavés at 3.85 (around 26%).
The draw is available at 3.78, which implies a probability of roughly 26.5%, almost identical to an Alavés win.
No standout value picks against the match-result market were identified. The model's Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.91 shows a slightly negative value edge (-1.59%), so it should be viewed as a moderate option rather than a strong value bet.
Alavés vs Atlético Madrid takes place Sat · 14:15 in the La Liga.
English 
