Greek Super League · Sat · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
AEK Athens are priced at 1.21, implying an outright win probability of about 83 percent, a strong market lean in their favour.
OFI Crete's 14.0 price implies only around 7 percent, positioning them as heavy outsiders in this Super League meeting.
The draw at 6.3 implies roughly 16 percent, a live secondary outcome given the gap between the two teams' prices.
The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.52 carries a 62 percent implied confidence from the model, though its calculated value edge is -6.2 percent, indicating no clear market inefficiency in its favour.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 13.1% | 7.62 |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | 8.60 |
| 3-0 | 9.9% | 10.13 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.75 |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | 12.14 |
| 3-1 | 7.0% | 14.29 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.26 and 0.71. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AA | X | 2 · OC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 6.10 | 13.90 |
| Betsson | 1.18 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.18 | 6.10 | 13.50 |
| 888sport | 1.20 | 5.50 | 13.00 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 5.50 | 13.00 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.17 | 6.00 | 13.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AEK Athens welcome OFI Crete to Athens as clear favourites in this Greek Super League fixture, with the betting market leaving little doubt about the expected outcome. AEK are priced at 1.21 for the win, implying odds-on confidence of roughly 83 percent, while OFI Crete sit out at 14.0, translating to just above 7 percent. The draw at 6.3 sits in between, implied at around 16 percent, reflecting the size of the perceived gap between the two sides. Away from the match-result market, the site's model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.52 as the featured angle, built around a market-implied confidence of 62 percent. Notably, the model's own value edge on this selection comes out slightly negative at -6.2 percent, meaning the numbers do not show a clear pricing gap in the bettor's favour, so this is presented as an inference from the data rather than a strong recommendation.
Verdict: The featured angle, Over 2.5 goals at 1.52, is grounded in a 62 percent model confidence, but its negative value edge of -6.2 percent means it should not be treated as a high-conviction pick. Given AEK's heavy favouritism in the match-result market, bettors weighing this line should size stakes conservatively and treat it as speculative rather than a strong edge play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | AE Kifisia FC v Panetolikos Agrinio | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos FC | 2.11 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.52, with a 62% confidence rating.
AEK Athens are priced at 1.21 for the win, implying roughly 83 percent probability, making them strong favourites over OFI Crete, who are priced at 14.0.
The draw is available at 6.3, which implies an approximate 16 percent chance according to the market.
The listed value picks section shows none above the site's threshold, and the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.52 itself carries a slightly negative value edge of -6.2 percent, so no strong market inefficiency is indicated here.
AEK Athens vs OFI Crete takes place Sat · 16:30 in the Greek Super League.
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