Greek Super League · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Kifisia are priced at 2.12, implying roughly 47% win probability, the clearest single-outcome favourite in this match
Panetolikos at 3.55 implies about 28%, while the draw at 3.30 implies close to 30%, keeping the draw a live outcome on paper
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% by about 5.6%, the standard bookmaker overround built into these prices
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation carries a -5.69% value edge versus the model's own 44% confidence figure, meaning the 2.15 price is slightly below what the model considers fair
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.1% | 7.66 |
| 1-0 | 12.5% | 8.01 |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | 9.88 |
| 0-0 | 9.7% | 10.32 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.88 |
| 2-0 | 8.1% | 12.41 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.29 and 1.04. These six scorelines cover 62% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AKF | X | 2 · PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.49 |
| Betsson | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.55 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.02 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.94 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.90 | 3.07 | 3.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AE Kifisia FC host Panetolikos Agrinio in a Greek Super League clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 2.12 on Kifisia imply a win probability of roughly 47%, noticeably higher than the 28% implied by Panetolikos's 3.55 price, with the draw sitting at 3.3 (about 30%). Those three figures add up to just over 105%, reflecting the standard bookmaker margin rather than a true probability split. Away from the outright market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 as its recommended angle, built around a 44% implied confidence level for that outcome. It is worth noting this pick carries a negative value edge against the model's own pricing, so it should be treated as a considered selection rather than a standout value bet. No qualifying value picks emerged from the outright market comparison for this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.15 reflects a 44% model confidence level but shows a negative value edge, so it is not a clear-cut value play. Bettors considering it should treat it as a moderate-risk selection tied to goal expectancy rather than a mispriced market opportunity, and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 18:00 | Panetolikos Agrinio v PAOK Thessaloniki | 170.00 | 29.00 | 1.03 |
| 10 Oct 15:00 | PAOK Thessaloniki v Kalamata FC | 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | AEK Athens v OFI Crete | 1.20 | 6.10 | 14.00 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Asteras Tripolis v Atromitos Athens | 2.45 | 3.16 | 2.89 |
| 11 Oct 14:00 | Iraklis FC v Levadiakos | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Aris Thessaloniki v Volos FC | 1.77 | 3.60 | 5.15 |
| 11 Oct 18:00 | Olympiakos Piraeus v Panathinaikos | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.39 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Levadiakos v Volos FC | 2.11 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.15, with a 44% confidence rating.
AE Kifisia are the market favourites at odds of 2.12, which implies a win probability of about 47%, compared with roughly 28% for Panetolikos at 3.55.
The best available draw odds are 3.30, implying a probability of around 30%, making it a realistic secondary outcome alongside the home win.
No outright match-result value picks cleared the threshold for this fixture. The model instead highlights Over 2.5 goals at 2.15, though this comes with a slightly negative value edge of -5.69% against its own 44% confidence estimate.
AE Kifisia FC vs Panetolikos Agrinio takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Greek Super League.
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