English ⚽ Serie A 🕒 Today · 18:45
Our tip
Under 3.5 goals
Odds
1.68
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceMedium · 67%
AI Value edge 12.54% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Milan's 1.4 price implies about 71% win probability, reflecting a heavy market favourite in this Serie A fixture.
02
Lecce's 10.0 price implies only around 10% winning chance according to the odds.
03
The draw at 5.7 (about 17.5% implied) is flagged by the model as undervalued, with a fair probability estimate of 22% and an edge above 25%.
04
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 carries a modelled confidence of 53% and a value edge just under 10%.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 41%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 15.7% | 6.37 |
| 2-0 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.55 |
| 0-0 | 10.2% | 9.78 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.14 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.14 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.54 and 0.74. These six scorelines cover 66% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
AM AC Milan DDWWL
12 Sept 26 @ Lazio 2-2
6 Sept 26 @ Juventus 1-1
28 Aug 26 vs Venezia FC 2-0
23 Aug 26 @ Torino 2-1
24 May 26 vs Cagliari 1-2
LEC Lecce WLLWW
13 Sept 26 vs Monza 3-2
7 Sept 26 @ Cagliari 0-1
31 Aug 26 vs Roma 0-4
23 Aug 26 @ Venezia FC 2-0
24 May 26 vs Genoa 1-0
Head-to-head: AC Milan v Lecce
Full H2H history → W 18 Jan 26
Milan 1-0 LecceSerie A
W 29 Aug 25
Lecce 0-2 MilanSerie A
W/D/L shown from AC Milan's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · AM | X | 2 · LEC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.26 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| Matchbook | 1.25 | 6.60 | 16.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24 | 6.50 | 14.75 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.24 | 6.40 | 14.00 |
| BetAnything | 1.24 | 6.40 | 14.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.25 | 6.14 | 12.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AC Milan vs Lecce: match preview
AC Milan host Lecce in Serie A with the market firmly behind the home side. Best-priced odds of 1.4 on a Milan win imply a win probability of roughly 71%, making them strong favourites, while Lecce's 10.0 price points to just a 10% chance of an away upset. The draw sits at 5.7, implying around 17-18%. Bookmakers' overall implied probabilities sum close to 100%, suggesting a fairly efficient book on the result market. Away from the straight win-draw-win market, the site's model flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 as its recommended angle, with a modelled confidence of 53% and a value edge near 10%. A separate value read on the draw shows a fair probability estimate of 22% against the market's 17.5%, an edge above 25%, though this remains a contrarian, lower-probability outcome.
Verdict: The model leans toward a low-scoring match, backing Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 with modest confidence (53%) and a value edge near 10%. This is not a high-certainty pick given the near-even confidence level, so it should be treated as a measured, moderate-risk selection rather than a strong lock.
Upcoming Serie A fixtures
All Serie A tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 13:00 | Genoa v Fiorentina | 3.25 | 3.48 | 2.45 |
| 10 Oct 16:00 | Inter Milan v Parma | 1.14 | 10.60 | 22.00 |
| 10 Oct 18:45 | Napoli v Frosinone | 1.49 | 4.94 | 7.50 |
| 11 Oct 10:30 | Como v AS Roma | 2.64 | 3.67 | 2.88 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lecce v Bologna | 4.21 | 3.50 | 2.08 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Lazio v Monza | 1.77 | 3.81 | 5.40 |
| 11 Oct 16:00 | Sassuolo v AC Milan | 4.58 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
| 11 Oct 18:45 | Cagliari v Juventus | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Serie A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +11 | 13 |
| 2 | Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 13 |
| 4 | Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 12 |
| 5 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 10 |
| 6 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 10 |
| 7 | Como 1907 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +3 | 10 |
| 8 | Milan | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 9 | Napoli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 | Udinese | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Torino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Parma | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Monza | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 19 | Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 20 | Venezia FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for AC Milan vs Lecce?+
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.68, with a 67% confidence rating.
Who is favourite in the AC Milan vs Lecce match?+
AC Milan are clear favourites, with odds of 1.4 implying roughly a 71% chance of victory, compared to Lecce's 10.0 price implying about 10%.
What is the draw priced at for this Serie A fixture?+
The draw is priced at 5.7, which implies an approximate 17.5% probability, though the model's fair-value estimate puts it slightly higher at 22%.
Is there value in this fixture according to the model?+
Yes, two areas are flagged: the draw shows a value edge of about 25% versus its market price, and the Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 carries roughly a 10% edge with 53% confidence.
When does the match kick off?+
AC Milan vs Lecce takes place Today · 18:45 in the Serie A.