Bundesliga · Sun · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Köln are priced at 1.9, implying a win probability of about 52.6%, the clearest favourite tag in this market.
Gladbach's 4.0 price implies roughly 25% win probability, while the draw at 4.2 sits marginally lower at about 23.8%.
The Under 3.0 goals line at 2.02 carries a break-even implied probability near 49.5%, against a model confidence of 47%, producing a value edge of -4.26%.
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold, so no side is flagged as a market-beating price in the 1X2 market.
| Bookmaker | 1 · 1FK | X | 2 · BM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.04 | 4.09 | 3.58 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.98 | 3.98 | 3.48 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.00 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| Pinnacle | 1.97 | 4.01 | 3.38 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.98 | 3.85 | 3.45 |
| Tipico | 1.95 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Köln host Borussia Monchengladbach in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 1.9 on 1. FC Köln imply a win probability of roughly 52.6%, making them clear favourites over Gladbach, priced at 4.0 (about 25% implied) and the draw at 4.2 (roughly 23.8%). Those numbers point to a match the market expects Köln to control, though a home win is far from a formality given Gladbach's price still reflects a meaningful chance. Away from the result market, our model's featured angle is Under 3.0 goals at 2.02, translating to an implied 49.5% break-even threshold against a modelled confidence of 47%. That gap produces a slightly negative value edge, so this pick sits closer to fair value than to a standout opportunity, and bettors should weigh it accordingly rather than treating it as a strong signal.
Verdict: The recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 2.02 is a modest, low-conviction pick rather than a strong value angle, since the model's own confidence sits slightly below the odds' break-even point. It is a reasonable, low-risk consideration for goals markets, but stake sizing should reflect its marginal edge and outcome uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sept 17:30 | SC Paderborn v TSG Hoffenheim | 1.81 | 3.40 | 7.20 |
| 9 Oct 18:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen | 1.40 | 5.80 | 7.90 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Augsburg v Bayern Munich | 11.50 | 8.25 | 1.24 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Elversberg | 2.37 | 3.88 | 2.97 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV | 1.43 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | 3.15 | 3.96 | 2.35 |
| 10 Oct 13:30 | SC Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart | 4.90 | 4.72 | 1.68 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.58 | 5.08 | 5.34 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 2 | Bayern | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 10 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +9 | 10 |
| 4 | Augsburg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 5 | Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 | Mainz | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Bremen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 9 | RB Leipzig | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 10 | Frankfurt | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Schalke | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 13 | SC Paderborn | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Hoffenheim | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | HSV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.83, with a 52% confidence rating.
1. FC Köln are the market favourites at odds of 1.9, which implies a win probability of about 52.6%, compared to Gladbach's 4.0 (around 25%).
The draw is available at 4.2, implying a probability of roughly 23.8% based on the odds given.
According to the data, no side in the match-result market cleared the value threshold, and the featured Under 3.0 goals pick at 2.02 shows a slightly negative edge of -4.26%, so no selection stands out as clearly value-positive.
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Monchengladbach takes place Sun · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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