Regression to the Mean explained

When performance runs far above or below a team's underlying level, the next stretch tends to land closer to that level — not because of momentum or a curse, but because extremes are part luck and luck does not repeat to order. A striker converting 35% of shots will convert closer to his career 12% next month.

For bettors the lesson is about pricing narratives: the market often extrapolates hot streaks exactly when regression is most likely, which is why fading extremes at inflated prices is a durable angle and chasing them a durable leak.