Bundesliga · Fri · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.1% | 11.04 |
| 3-1 | 7.9% | 12.69 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 13.21 |
| 1-1 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
| 3-0 | 6.6% | 15.20 |
| 1-0 | 5.8% | 17.24 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.61 and 1.20. These six scorelines cover 44% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.50 | +19.8% | 22% | 67 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from VfB Stuttgart's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · VS | X | 2 · 1FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.50 | 5.18 | 6.35 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.48 | 5.10 | 6.25 |
| Coolbet | 1.45 | 5.25 | 6.50 |
| Tipico | 1.45 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.43 | 4.80 | 6.30 |
| Betsson | 1.43 | 4.80 | 6.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Stuttgart host Köln in the Bundesliga, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. VfB Stuttgart are priced as short as 1.52 to take all three points, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 66%. By contrast, 1. FC Köln drift out to 6.5, or about 15% in probability terms, while the draw sits at 5.3, near 19%. That price gap reflects clear confidence in the home side rather than an even contest. Our model, however, looks past the match result and toward the goals market: the recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 1.87, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 53%. It is worth noting the calculated value edge here is slightly negative at -1.53%, so this is a lean rather than a standout price. Separately, the model flags the draw at 5.3 as holding a positive edge against the consensus.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 3.5 goals at 1.87, a coin-flip-style market reflecting roughly 53% implied confidence. With a marginally negative value edge, it is a modest lean rather than a strong price. Treat it as higher-variance and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart | 1.31 | 7.20 | 10.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | 1. FC Köln v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.36 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach | 1.59 | 4.78 | 5.90 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn | 1.73 | 4.21 | 5.20 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen | 5.75 | 4.83 | 1.61 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV | 1.36 | 5.70 | 9.80 |
| 30 Aug 13:30 | SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen | 2.07 | 3.85 | 3.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.07, with a 48% confidence rating.
VfB Stuttgart are the clear favourites at 1.52, implying around a 66% chance, while 1. FC Köln are priced at 6.5, close to 15%.
The draw is available at a best price of 5.3, an implied probability near 19%. Our model rates its fair probability at about 22%, giving a positive value edge of roughly 17%.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals at 1.87 carries around 53% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.53%, so it is a lean rather than a clear-value pick.
VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln takes place Fri · 18:30 in the Bundesliga.
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