Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
The market makes Hoffenheim narrow favourites at 2.45 (around 41% implied), with Köln at 3.0 (around 33%).
The price gap between the two sides is fairly slim, suggesting the bookmakers see a balanced fixture.
The draw is available at 4.0, implying roughly a 25% chance of a shared result.
Our model rates the draw at a fair probability of 26%, creating a value edge of about 3.6% over the market price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | 11.31 |
| 2-1 | 7.4% | 13.53 |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | 14.53 |
| 0-1 | 6.1% | 16.37 |
| 0-2 | 5.7% | 17.61 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.56 and 1.86. These six scorelines cover 44% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from 1. FC Köln's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · 1FK | X | 2 · TH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.07 | 3.76 | 2.36 |
| Betfair | 3.05 | 3.85 | 2.32 |
| Matchbook | 3.05 | 3.85 | 2.32 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.10 | 3.75 | 2.28 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.10 | 3.75 | 2.28 |
| Coolbet | 2.90 | 3.85 | 2.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Bundesliga meeting sees 1. FC Köln host TSG Hoffenheim, with the market leaning towards the visitors. Hoffenheim are the shorter price at 2.45, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 41%, while Köln at 3.0 sit at around 33%. Those numbers point to a contest the bookmakers view as competitive rather than one-sided, with the away side only a modest favourite on home soil. The draw is priced at 4.0, implying about a 25% chance of the spoils being shared. Our model, however, rates the stalemate slightly higher, at a fair probability of 26%, which nudges the 4.0 price into value territory. That is where our recommended bet lands: backing the Draw at Coolbet, where the model identifies a small edge over the market consensus. It is a selection built on pricing rather than certainty, so treat it accordingly.
Verdict: The recommended bet is the Draw at 4.0 with Coolbet, supported by a small 3.6% value edge over the market. With an implied probability of only around 26%, this is a lower-likelihood outcome, so it carries meaningful risk. Stake sensibly and treat it as a value play, not a likely result.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart | 1.31 | 7.20 | 10.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach | 1.59 | 4.78 | 5.90 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn | 1.73 | 4.21 | 5.20 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen | 5.75 | 4.83 | 1.61 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV | 1.36 | 5.70 | 9.80 |
| 30 Aug 13:30 | SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen | 2.07 | 3.85 | 3.80 |
| 30 Aug 15:30 | Augsburg v FC Schalke 04 | 2.27 | 3.95 | 3.23 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.64, with a 60% confidence rating.
1. FC Köln vs TSG Hoffenheim takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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