La Liga · Sat · 19:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Atlético Madrid are the market favourites at 2.53, implying about a 40% chance, ahead of Sevilla at 3.3 (around 30%).
The draw is priced at 3.5, roughly a 29% implied probability, keeping all three outcomes reasonably close.
Our model rates Atlético's fair probability at 41%, marginally above the market-implied figure, giving a value edge of about 4.1%.
The relatively narrow price gap between the sides points to a competitive contest rather than a one-sided favourite.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.46 |
| 1-0 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | 11.85 |
| 0-1 | 8.3% | 12.06 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.08 |
| 2-0 | 6.0% | 16.61 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 1.40. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Sevilla's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SEV | X | 2 · AM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.80 | 3.60 | 2.14 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.55 | 2.14 |
| 1xBet | 3.64 | 3.56 | 2.18 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.70 | 3.55 | 2.12 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.65 | 3.50 | 2.12 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.58 | 3.50 | 2.14 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This La Liga clash sends Atlético Madrid to face Sevilla, and the market leans clearly toward the visitors. Atlético are priced at 2.53 with 1xBet, translating to a market-implied probability of roughly 40%, while Sevilla sit further out at 3.3 (Tipico), around 30% in probability terms. The draw is quoted at 3.5 (1xBet), close to a 29% chance. That spread makes Atlético modest favourites rather than dominant ones, with the outcome far from settled on paper. Our model recommends backing Atlético Madrid to win at 2.53, assigning a fair probability of about 41% and identifying a value edge of roughly 4.1% versus the offered price. In short, the numbers suggest a competitive fixture at Sevilla, with the away side holding a slight edge in the market's eyes and a small pocket of value on their match-result price.
Verdict: The recommended play is Atlético Madrid to win at 2.53, supported by a small 4.1% value edge over the market. With an implied probability near 41%, this is a lean rather than a strong call, so treat it as a moderate-risk pick and stake within your usual limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:30 | CA Osasuna v Levante | 1.98 | 3.60 | 4.71 |
| 24 Aug 19:30 | Málaga v Deportivo La Coruña | 2.44 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| 25 Aug 19:00 | Valencia v Real Betis | 2.98 | 3.43 | 2.67 |
| 26 Aug 19:00 | Real Madrid v Real Sociedad | 1.39 | 5.90 | 9.20 |
| 27 Aug 18:30 | Celta Vigo v CA Osasuna | 2.07 | 3.59 | 4.30 |
| 27 Aug 19:00 | Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao | 1.37 | 6.00 | 9.40 |
| 28 Aug 17:00 | Real Racing Club de Santander v Elche CF | 2.26 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| 28 Aug 19:30 | Alavés v Villarreal | 3.20 | 3.66 | 2.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevilla FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Alavés | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | Atleti | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Getafe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Deportivo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Celta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Santander | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Málaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 51% confidence rating.
Atlético Madrid are the favourites at 2.53 (1xBet), implying roughly a 40% chance. Sevilla are the outsiders at 3.3 (Tipico), around 30%.
The draw is priced at 3.5 with 1xBet, which equates to an implied probability of about 29%.
Our model identifies a small value edge of around 4.1% on Atlético Madrid at 2.53, with a fair probability estimate of 41%. It is a modest edge, so manage your stakes accordingly.
Sevilla vs Atlético Madrid takes place Sat · 19:30 in the La Liga.
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