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አማርኛ ⚽ La Liga 🕒 Fri · 19:30
Our tip
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
1.89
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 55%
AI Value edge 4.5% · best price at 1xBet
Bet at 1xBet Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Villarreal are narrow favourites at 2.63 (about 38% implied), only just ahead of Alav\u00e9s at 2.82 (about 35%).
02
The small gap between the two match-result prices signals a closely contested game with no dominant side.
03
The draw at 3.62 implies roughly a 28% chance, reasonable for such an evenly priced fixture.
04
Our recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.84 shows about 54% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.49%, indicating fair rather than exceptional pricing.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 61%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.0% | 9.11 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.61 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.24 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 13.55 |
| 1-0 | 7.0% | 14.29 |
| 2-2 | 6.4% | 15.60 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.49 and 1.57. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
ALA Alavés DWLWW
20 Aug 26 @ Rayo Vallecano 1-1
15 Aug 26 vs Getafe 3-0
23 May 26 vs Rayo Vallecano 1-2
17 May 26 @ Real Oviedo 1-0
13 May 26 vs Barça 1-0
VIL Villarreal DDWLL
23 Aug 26 @ Atleti 2-2
16 Aug 26 @ Santander 2-2
24 May 26 vs Atleti 5-1
17 May 26 @ Rayo Vallecano 0-2
13 May 26 vs Sevilla FC 2-3
Head-to-head: Alavés v Villarreal
Full H2H history → D 13 Mar 26
Alavés 1-1 VillarrealLa Liga
L 10 Jan 26
Villarreal 3-1 AlavésLa Liga
W/D/L shown from Alavés's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · ALA | X | 2 · VIL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.20 | 3.65 | 2.38 |
| Betfair | 3.15 | 3.65 | 2.38 |
| 1xBet | 3.11 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.38 |
| Coolbet | 2.95 | 3.65 | 2.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.06 | 3.55 | 2.36 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Alavés vs Villarreal: match preview
This La Liga clash between Alav\u00e9s and Villarreal is priced as one of the tightest on the board. Villarreal are marginal favourites at 2.63 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 38% chance of victory, while Alav\u00e9s sit close behind at 2.82 (Betsson), or about 35% in probability terms. The draw is offered at 3.62, translating to around a 28% likelihood. Those numbers describe a genuinely open match-result market with no strong lean either way. Rather than picking a side, our model turns to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.84 with 1xBet. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 54%, though the value edge sits slightly negative at -1.49%, meaning the bet is fairly priced rather than a standout overlay. Treat this as a modest total-goals angle in an evenly matched fixture, and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.84, backed by roughly 54% implied confidence. With a marginally negative value edge, this is a fairly priced total-goals bet rather than a clear overlay. Moderate risk in a tight fixture, so size your stake sensibly.
Upcoming La Liga fixtures
All La Liga tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:30 | CA Osasuna v Levante | 1.98 | 3.60 | 4.71 |
| 24 Aug 19:30 | Málaga v Deportivo La Coruña | 2.44 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| 25 Aug 19:00 | Valencia v Real Betis | 2.98 | 3.43 | 2.67 |
| 26 Aug 19:00 | Real Madrid v Real Sociedad | 1.39 | 5.90 | 9.20 |
| 27 Aug 18:30 | Celta Vigo v CA Osasuna | 2.07 | 3.59 | 4.30 |
| 27 Aug 19:00 | Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao | 1.37 | 6.00 | 9.40 |
| 28 Aug 17:00 | Real Racing Club de Santander v Elche CF | 2.26 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| 29 Aug 15:00 | Levante v Real Betis | 3.45 | 3.48 | 2.35 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Primera Division standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevilla FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Alavés | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | Atleti | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Getafe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Deportivo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Celta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Santander | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Málaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Alavés vs Villarreal?+
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 55% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Alav\u00e9s vs Villarreal?+
Villarreal are the slight favourites at 2.63 with 1xBet, implying about a 38% chance, just ahead of Alav\u00e9s at 2.82, around 35%.
What are the odds for a draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.62 with 1xBet, which equates to roughly a 28% implied probability.
Is there any value in this match?+
No value pick cleared our threshold here. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.84 actually carries a small negative edge of -1.49%, so it is fairly priced rather than a value overlay.
When does the match kick off?+
Alavés vs Villarreal takes place Fri · 19:30 in the La Liga.