Bundesliga ยท Sat ยท 13:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The match-result prices are close, with Freiburg at 2.49 (about 40% implied) only narrowly ahead of Paderborn at 2.90 (about 34%).
The draw is priced at 3.75, implying roughly 27%, though our model rates its fair probability nearer 28% for a small 5.2% edge.
Our recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 carries around 57% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.64%, suggesting a fair rather than standout price.
The narrow gap across all three match outcomes points to a balanced fixture in the eyes of the market.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท SP | X | 2 ยท SF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.90 | 3.72 | 2.49 |
| Coolbet | 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.45 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.85 | 3.66 | 2.45 |
| Tipico | 2.85 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| Betsson | 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.32 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.32 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Bundesliga meeting between SC Paderborn and SC Freiburg is priced as a genuinely open contest, with the market only marginally favouring the visitors. Freiburg sit as slight favourites at 2.49, translating to an implied probability of around 40%, while home side Paderborn are close behind at 2.90, or roughly 34%. The draw is available at 3.75, implying about 27%. Those numbers describe a fixture without a clear-cut side, which is reflected in the tight spread across the three outcomes. Our model leans away from picking a winner and toward the goals market, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 with an implied confidence near 57%. Worth noting is that this selection currently shows a negative value edge of around -1.64%, meaning the price is broadly fair rather than generous. For those tracking value against consensus, the draw stands out with a modest edge, discussed further below.
Verdict: The model favours Over 2.5 goals at 1.73, backed by roughly 57% implied confidence, but its marginally negative value edge means the price offers no clear overlay. Treat it as a fair-value lean rather than a strong edge, and stake responsibly given the balanced nature of this fixture.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart | 1.31 | 7.20 | 10.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | 1. FC Kรถln v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.36 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach | 1.59 | 4.78 | 5.90 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn | 1.73 | 4.21 | 5.20 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen | 5.75 | 4.83 | 1.61 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV | 1.36 | 5.70 | 9.80 |
| 30 Aug 13:30 | SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen | 2.07 | 3.85 | 3.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, with a 57% confidence rating.
SC Freiburg are the slight favourites at 2.49, implying about a 40% chance, with SC Paderborn close behind at 2.90, around 34%. The tight gap marks this as a fairly open game.
The best available draw price is 3.75 with Coolbet, implying roughly 27%. Our model puts its fair probability at about 28%, giving a small 5.2% value edge.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 shows a slightly negative edge of -1.64%, so it is closer to fair value than a bargain. The draw at 3.75 offers the more notable edge of 5.2% against consensus.
SC Paderborn vs SC Freiburg takes place Sat ยท 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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