UCL Qualification ยท Wed ยท 19:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Lyon are the favourites at 2.1 (around 48% implied), well ahead of Fenerbahce at 3.75 (around 27%).
The draw is priced at 3.56, implying roughly 28% and sitting close to the away side's chances.
Our recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.99 carries a negative value edge of -2.54%, so it is not flagged as genuine value.
No selections cleared our value threshold for this fixture, suggesting the prices are broadly efficient.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
W/D/L shown from Lyon's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท LYO | X | 2 ยท FEN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 1.96 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 3.74 | 4.01 |
| Coolbet | 1.95 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.72 | 3.88 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.93 | 3.60 | 3.77 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.84 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This UEFA Champions League qualification tie sees Lyon host Fenerbahce, and the market leaves little doubt about who is fancied. Lyon are priced at 2.1 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 48%, marking them as clear favourites on home soil. Fenerbahce are the outsiders at 3.75 with Coolbet, translating to around 27% implied probability, while the draw sits at 3.56 (about 28%). That spread points to a contest the bookmakers see as tilted towards Lyon but far from settled. Our model does not focus on the match result here; instead it flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.99, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 49%. Notably, the value edge on that pick reads -2.54%, meaning the price is slightly below fair value by our numbers. With no value selections clearing our threshold, this is a preview to approach with measured stakes.
Verdict: The model leans to Over 2.5 goals at 1.99, with implied confidence near 49%. However, the negative value edge means the price offers no clear market advantage. Treat this as a low-conviction, roughly coin-flip proposition and stake responsibly rather than chasing it.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 16:45 | Sabah FK v Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1.98 | 3.95 | 4.05 |
| 25 Aug 19:00 | Bodรธ/Glimt v NEC Nijmegen | 1.54 | 5.40 | 5.51 |
| 25 Aug 19:00 | LASK v Celtic | 2.02 | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| 26 Aug 19:00 | AEK Athens v PFC Levski Sofia | 1.59 | 4.12 | 6.80 |
| 26 Aug 19:00 | NK Celje v ล K Slovan Bratislava | 2.50 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| 26 Aug 19:00 | Viking FK v Dinamo Zagreb | 2.46 | 3.77 | 2.92 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 47% confidence rating.
Lyon are the favourites at 2.1 with 1xBet, implying around a 48% win probability. Fenerbahce are the outsiders at 3.75, implying roughly 27%.
The draw is available at 3.56 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of about 28%.
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.99 actually shows a negative value edge of -2.54%, so it is not considered genuine value.
Lyon vs Fenerbahce takes place Wed ยท 19:00 in the UCL Qualification.
English 
Espaรฑol 
Portuguรชs 
Deutsch 
Franรงais 
Kiswahili 
Hausa 
แ แแญแ