La Liga · Sat · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
The match-result prices are extremely tight, with Real Betis at 2.68 and Levante at 2.73 pointing to a near even-money contest.
Implied probabilities sit at roughly 37% for each side and about 28% for the draw, showing no clear market favourite.
Our recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 has a negative value edge of about -1.21%, so it reflects expected game flow rather than a pricing advantage.
The draw at 3.61 shows a small positive edge of around 3.07% against a fair probability of 29%, the only flagged value angle here.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 0-1 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.64 |
| 1-0 | 8.5% | 11.82 |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | 12.48 |
| 0-2 | 6.5% | 15.46 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.33 and 1.43. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Levante's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LEV | X | 2 · RB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 3.45 | 3.45 | 2.34 |
| Betfair | 3.45 | 3.45 | 2.32 |
| 1xBet | 3.31 | 3.48 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.30 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.33 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.26 | 3.42 | 2.31 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This La Liga meeting between Levante and Real Betis is priced as one of the closest calls on the board. The best available odds have Levante at 2.73 and Real Betis at 2.68, which translates to roughly 37% and 37% implied probability respectively before margin. In practical terms, the market can barely separate the two sides, with Betis nudged marginally ahead as a nominal favourite. The draw sits at 3.61, or about 28% implied, reflecting the tight nature of the pricing. Our model leans towards a low-scoring outcome, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 2.12 with market-implied confidence around 47%. That pick carries a slightly negative value edge, so it is more a read on game flow than a standout price. The most notable value flag falls elsewhere: the draw offers a small positive edge against the model's fair probability, which is worth weighing for those comfortable backing a stalemate.
Verdict: The model backs Under 2.5 goals at 2.12, a call on a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a value price, given its slightly negative edge. Confidence is modest at around 47%. Treat it as a lean, not a strong signal, and stake responsibly within your bankroll.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:30 | CA Osasuna v Levante | 1.98 | 3.60 | 4.71 |
| 24 Aug 19:30 | Málaga v Deportivo La Coruña | 2.44 | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| 25 Aug 19:00 | Valencia v Real Betis | 2.98 | 3.43 | 2.67 |
| 26 Aug 19:00 | Real Madrid v Real Sociedad | 1.39 | 5.90 | 9.20 |
| 27 Aug 18:30 | Celta Vigo v CA Osasuna | 2.07 | 3.59 | 4.30 |
| 27 Aug 19:00 | Barcelona v Athletic Bilbao | 1.37 | 6.00 | 9.40 |
| 28 Aug 17:00 | Real Racing Club de Santander v Elche CF | 2.26 | 3.70 | 3.55 |
| 28 Aug 19:30 | Alavés v Villarreal | 3.20 | 3.66 | 2.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevilla FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Alavés | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 4 |
| 3 | Atleti | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 4 | Barça | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 3 |
| 5 | Espanyol | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Real Betis | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Getafe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 10 | Deportivo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Celta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Santander | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -5 | 1 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Athletic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 19 | Málaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 20 | Levante | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 51% confidence rating.
The market makes it almost a coin flip, with Real Betis marginally ahead at 2.68 versus Levante at 2.73. Both are priced at roughly 37% implied probability, so there is no strong favourite.
The draw is priced at 3.61 with 1xBet, which implies about 28% probability. Our model rates its fair probability near 29%, giving a small positive value edge of around 3.07%.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.12 actually carries a slightly negative edge of about -1.21%, so it is a game-flow lean rather than a value play. The clearest value flag is the draw at 3.61.
Levante vs Real Betis takes place Sat · 15:00 in the La Liga.
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