Bundesliga ยท Sun ยท 13:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
The match-result prices are extremely tight: Hamburger SV at 2.65 versus FSV Mainz 05 at 2.71, with barely a percentage point separating their implied probabilities.
The draw at 3.75 carries an implied probability of around 27%, and our model's fair estimate of 28% suggests a small positive value edge of about 4.32%.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.74 reflects roughly 57% implied confidence but shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.5%.
No side is a strong favourite, so this fixture profiles as a close, balanced contest based purely on pricing.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท HS | X | 2 ยท FM0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.70 | 2.73 |
| Coolbet | 2.65 | 3.75 | 2.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.60 | 3.64 | 2.68 |
| Tipico | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.65 |
| Betsson | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.42 | 3.45 | 2.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Bundesliga meeting between Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 is one the market struggles to separate. Hamburger SV are marginally shorter at 2.65, translating to an implied probability of roughly 38%, while FSV Mainz 05 sit just behind at 2.71, or around 37%. With the draw priced at 3.75 (about 27% implied), the odds describe a genuine coin-flip rather than a clear favourite. That near-symmetry suggests the bookmakers see two evenly matched sides. Our model, meanwhile, looks past the winner and leans towards Over 2.5 goals at 1.74, a market carrying an implied confidence near 57%. It is worth noting the value edge on that selection reads slightly negative at -1.5%, so it is a lean rather than a standout price. The more interesting value flag falls on the draw, where a fair probability of 28% against the offered 3.75 produces a modest positive edge.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.74, backed by around 57% implied confidence but a marginally negative value edge, making it a modest play rather than a strong one. The draw offers the only positive value flag. Treat both as low-conviction angles and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart | 1.31 | 7.20 | 10.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | 1. FC Kรถln v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.36 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach | 1.59 | 4.78 | 5.90 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn | 1.73 | 4.21 | 5.20 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen | 5.75 | 4.83 | 1.61 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV | 1.36 | 5.70 | 9.80 |
| 30 Aug 13:30 | SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen | 2.07 | 3.85 | 3.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.73, with a 55% confidence rating.
There is no clear favourite. Hamburger SV are fractionally shorter at 2.65 against FSV Mainz 05 at 2.71, so the market rates the two sides almost dead even.
The best available draw price is 3.75, which implies roughly a 27% chance. Our model's fair probability of 28% points to a small positive value edge of about 4.32%.
The clearest value flag is on the draw at 3.75. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.74 is a lean with around 57% implied confidence but a slightly negative edge of -1.5%.
Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 takes place Sun ยท 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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