Bundesliga ยท Sun ยท 15:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Frankfurt are favourites at 1.99 (about 50% implied), a clear step ahead of Augsburg at 3.69 (around 27%).
The draw is priced at 4.2, roughly 24% implied, and the model rates it higher at a fair probability of 26%, an edge of 8.29%.
Augsburg at 3.69 also carries positive value on the model's numbers, with a fair probability of 28% and an edge of 4.83%.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.19 has a market-implied confidence near 45% but a small negative edge of -1.51%, marking it as a lean rather than a value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.75 |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | 10.78 |
| 2-2 | 6.6% | 15.17 |
| 1-2 | 6.6% | 15.20 |
| 2-0 | 6.6% | 15.24 |
| 1-0 | 6.6% | 15.27 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.00 and 1.42. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 4.20 | +7.1% | 26% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Eintracht Frankfurt's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท EF | X | 2 ยท AUG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 4.17 | 3.60 |
| Coolbet | 1.95 | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.98 | 4.10 | 3.54 |
| Tipico | 1.90 | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| Betsson | 1.95 | 3.85 | 3.45 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.95 | 3.85 | 3.45 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Bundesliga meeting between Eintracht Frankfurt and Augsburg sees the home side installed as clear favourites at the bookmakers. Frankfurt are priced at 1.99, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 50%, while Augsburg sit at 3.69, or around 27% in probability terms. The draw is available at 4.2, implying close to 24%. That price structure reflects a market that leans towards Frankfurt without ruling out an upset or a stalemate. Our model's recommended bet is Over 3.5 goals at 2.19, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 45%. It is worth flagging that this pick shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.51%, so it is a lean on goals rather than a standout price. Elsewhere, the model highlights the draw and an Augsburg win as the spots where the odds appear generous relative to its fair estimates in this fixture.
Verdict: The model's pick is Over 3.5 goals at 2.19, backing an open, high-scoring game. With a slightly negative value edge and confidence around 45%, this is a moderate-to-higher risk bet. The draw and Augsburg carry the better value edges if you prefer the result market. Stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart | 1.31 | 7.20 | 10.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | 1. FC Kรถln v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.36 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach | 1.59 | 4.78 | 5.90 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn | 1.73 | 4.21 | 5.20 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen | 5.75 | 4.83 | 1.61 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV | 1.36 | 5.70 | 9.80 |
| 30 Aug 13:30 | SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen | 2.07 | 3.85 | 3.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.21, with a 45% confidence rating.
Eintracht Frankfurt are the favourites at 1.99, implying around a 50% chance. Augsburg are the outsiders at 3.69, roughly 27% implied probability.
The best available draw price is 4.2 with Coolbet, which implies close to 24%. The model rates the draw slightly higher at a fair probability of 26%, giving it an edge of 8.29%.
The model flags the draw (edge 8.29%) and an Augsburg win (edge 4.83%) as the positive-value spots. The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.19 actually shows a small negative edge of -1.51%, so treat it as a lean on goals rather than a value pick.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg takes place Sun ยท 15:30 in the Bundesliga.
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