Derby County vs Swansea City Prediction & Odds

Our prediction

⚽ Championship 🕒 Sat · 11:30

Derby County

Swansea City

Model lean

Under 2.5 goals

Odds

1.78

ⓘ Model lean, not an official pick — this fixture didn't clear our value threshold, so it isn't counted in the record

ConfidenceValue · 55%

AI Value edge -2.83% · best price at Coolbet

Bet at Coolbet

Key factors behind our tip

Derby County are the favourites at 2.25, implying about a 44% chance, while Swansea City at 3.35 sit near 30%.

The draw is priced at 3.5 (Coolbet), roughly a 29% implied probability, underlining a reasonably balanced market.

The gap between the two teams is modest, so this is not a heavily one-sided price on paper.

The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.92 carries a negative value edge of -5.01%, meaning the model sees no market-beating value at that price.

Most likely scorelines

Both teams to score: 55%

Score	Model chance	Fair odds
1-1	12.0%	8.33
1-0	10.0%	10.01
2-1	9.1%	10.95
0-1	7.9%	12.66
2-0	7.6%	13.16
1-2	7.2%	13.85

From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.52 and 1.20. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.

Team form

DC Derby County LLWLW

15 Aug 26 @ Charlton 1-2

2 May 26 vs Sheffield Utd 1-2

25 Apr 26 @ QPR 3-2

21 Apr 26 @ Norwich 1-2

18 Apr 26 vs Oxford United 1-0

SC Swansea City WWDWL

15 Aug 26 @ Stoke 2-1

2 May 26 vs Charlton 3-1

25 Apr 26 @ Norwich 1-1

21 Apr 26 @ QPR 2-1

18 Apr 26 vs Southampton 1-2

Head-to-head: Derby County v Swansea City

Full H2H history →

W 14 Feb 26

Derby County 2-0 SwanseaChampionship

W 25 Nov 25

Swansea 1-2 Derby CountyChampionship

W/D/L shown from Derby County's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.

Best odds across bookmakers

Bookmaker	1 · DC	X	2 · SC
Matchbook	2.36	3.40	3.25
LeoVegas (SE)	2.35	3.30	3.20
Betfair	2.34	3.30	3.20
Pinnacle	2.31	3.36	3.14
BetOnline.ag	2.30	3.40	3.12
Coolbet	2.30	3.40	3.10

Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.

Derby County vs Swansea City: match preview

This Championship clash at Derby County against Swansea City sees the hosts installed as favourites by the market. Derby are priced at 2.25 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 44%, while Swansea sit at 3.35 (Codere IT), or about 30% in probability terms. The draw is available at 3.5 with Coolbet, close to a 29% chance. That spread of prices points to a fixture the market considers fairly open, with Derby holding a modest edge rather than a commanding one. Our model's attention falls on the goals market rather than the outright result: Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.92 with Pinnacle, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 49%. Worth noting up front, however, is that this selection currently shows a negative value edge of -5.01%, meaning the price is not in your favour on our numbers, so it is more a lean than a recommended value play here for Derby versus Swansea.

Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.92, with around 49% implied confidence. Be aware the value edge is negative at -5.01%, so the price offers no mathematical advantage on our numbers. Treat it as a marginal lean rather than a value spot, and stake responsibly.

Upcoming Championship fixtures

All Championship tips →

Kick-off (UTC)	Match	1	X	2
28 Aug 19:00	Wrexham AFC v Birmingham City	2.50	3.45	2.97
29 Aug 11:30	Wolverhampton Wanderers v Stoke City	1.52	4.75	6.95
29 Aug 11:30	Middlesbrough v West Bromwich Albion	1.81	4.03	4.87
29 Aug 14:00	Cardiff City v Sheffield United	2.63	3.70	2.70
29 Aug 14:00	Norwich City v Burnley	2.48	3.75	2.95
29 Aug 14:00	Watford v West Ham United	4.00	4.00	1.97
29 Aug 14:00	Southampton v Millwall	1.98	3.75	4.15
29 Aug 14:00	Blackburn Rovers v Queens Park Rangers	2.36	3.45	3.35

Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.

Championship standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Millwall	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Charlton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Wolverhampton	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Bolton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	0	3
11	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	0	3
12	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Wrexham	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	0	2
15	Sheffield Utd	2	0	2	0	0	2
16	West Ham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Derby County	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Preston NE	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Lincoln City	2	0	0	2	-3	0
20	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Norwich	2	0	0	2	-4	0
24	Southampton	2	1	0	1	+1	-1

Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.

Match FAQ

What is the prediction for Derby County vs Swansea City?+

Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 55% confidence rating.

Who is the favourite for Derby County vs Swansea City?+

Derby County are the favourites at 2.25 with 1xBet, implying roughly a 44% chance. Swansea City are the outsiders at 3.35, around 30%.

What are the odds on the draw?+

The draw is priced at 3.5 with Coolbet, which implies approximately a 29% probability.

Is there any value in this match?+

No selection cleared our value threshold. The model's Over 2.5 goals lean at 1.92 actually shows a negative edge of -5.01%, so there is no market-beating value on our figures.

When does the match kick off?+

Derby County vs Swansea City takes place Sat · 11:30 in the Championship.

Derby County vs Swansea City prediction