Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
Blackburn Rovers are favourites at 2.42, implying about 41%, but the modest price shows the market sees a genuine contest rather than a mismatch.
Queens Park Rangers at 3.3 and the draw at 3.4 are priced almost level, underlining how open the outcome is.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 2.03 carries a negative edge of -4.88%, making it a preference rather than a value play.
The stronger value signal is on QPR at 3.3, where the model's fair probability of 31% suggests a small positive edge of 3.52%.
Team form
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท BR | X | 2 ยท QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair | 2.36 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| Matchbook | 2.36 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.28 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 3.41 | 3.13 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.27 | 3.41 | 3.16 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.30 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Blackburn Rovers vs Queens Park Rangers: match preview
Blackburn Rovers host Queens Park Rangers in this Championship clash, and the market leans towards the home side. Blackburn are priced at 2.42, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 41%, marking them as the favourites without making them an overwhelming pick. Queens Park Rangers are offered at 3.3 (about 30% implied), while the draw sits at 3.4, close to the away price and reflecting the tight nature of many Championship fixtures. The relatively narrow gap between all three outcomes suggests the market views this as competitive rather than one-sided. Our model's recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 2.03, carrying a market-implied confidence of around 47%. Notably, that pick shows a negative value edge of -4.88%, so it is a lean rather than a strong statistical edge. The clearer value flag lands on QPR at 3.3, where the model estimates a fair probability of 31%.
Verdict: The model's pick is Over 2.5 goals at 2.03, a coin-flip-style call at around 47% implied confidence. With a negative value edge, treat it as a lean rather than a standout bet. QPR at 3.3 offers the clearer value angle. Stake responsibly given the uncertainty.
Upcoming Championship fixtures
All Championship tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 19:00 | Wrexham AFC v Birmingham City | 2.50 | 3.45 | 2.97 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v Stoke City | 1.52 | 4.75 | 6.95 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Derby County v Swansea City | 2.36 | 3.42 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 11:30 | Middlesbrough v West Bromwich Albion | 1.81 | 4.03 | 4.87 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Cardiff City v Sheffield United | 2.63 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Norwich City v Burnley | 2.48 | 3.75 | 2.95 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Watford v West Ham United | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.97 |
| 29 Aug 14:00 | Southampton v Millwall | 1.98 | 3.75 | 4.15 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Championship standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | West Brom | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 3 | Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 6 |
| 4 | Wolverhampton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | Blackburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 7 | Watford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Bolton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 8 | Swansea | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Middlesbrough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Cardiff | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Wrexham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 16 | Derby County | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 18 | Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 19 | Bristol City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Preston NE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 20 | Stoke | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 23 | Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 0 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | -1 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 47% confidence rating.
Blackburn Rovers are the favourites at 2.42, implying roughly a 41% chance. Queens Park Rangers are outsiders at 3.3, around 30% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.4 with 1xBet, implying about a 29% chance. That is very close to the QPR away price of 3.3.
The model flags Queens Park Rangers at 3.3 as the value pick, with a fair probability of 31% and an edge of about 3.52%. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet, by contrast, shows a negative edge of -4.88%.
Blackburn Rovers vs Queens Park Rangers takes place Sat ยท 14:00 in the Championship.