Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Leverkusen are strong favourites at 1.55, implying around 65% win probability, with Union Berlin a long shot at 6.25 (about 16%).
The draw is priced at 5.0, or roughly 20% implied, but our model rates its fair probability higher at 23%, giving a positive value edge of 16.53%.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.19 carries about 45% model confidence but a marginally negative value edge of -1.51%.
The sizeable gap between the favourite and both other outcomes reflects a market that leans heavily toward a Leverkusen result.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.16 |
| 1-1 | 9.1% | 11.01 |
| 2-0 | 8.9% | 11.26 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.21 |
| 3-1 | 7.1% | 14.06 |
| 3-0 | 6.4% | 15.60 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.17 and 1.11. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.00 | +13.6% | 23% | 64 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Bayer Leverkusen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BL | X | 2 · UB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.53 | 4.93 | 6.20 |
| Coolbet | 1.48 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.51 | 4.85 | 6.10 |
| Tipico | 1.47 | 5.00 | 5.70 |
| Betsson | 1.48 | 4.55 | 5.90 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.48 | 4.55 | 5.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bayer Leverkusen host Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, and the market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Leverkusen are priced at 1.55, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 65% for the home win. Union Berlin, by contrast, sit at 6.25 (about 16% implied), while the draw is available at 5.0, or around 20% implied. That is a wide price gap, marking Leverkusen as clear favourites on home soil. Our model's headline pick is Over 3.5 goals at 2.19, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 45%, though the value edge here is slightly negative at -1.51%. More interesting from a value angle is the draw: priced at 5.0, our model assigns it a fair probability of 23%, producing a positive edge of 16.53%. Both angles are worth weighing before deciding where, if anywhere, to commit a stake in this matchup.
Verdict: The model's recommended play is Over 3.5 goals at 2.19, a moderate-risk bet given its 45% confidence and slightly negative edge. The standout value instead lies with the draw at 5.0, where the model sees a 16.53% edge. Both are higher-variance picks against a heavily favoured home side, so stake carefully.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 18:30 | Bayern Munich v VfB Stuttgart | 1.31 | 7.20 | 10.00 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | 1. FC Köln v TSG Hoffenheim | 3.10 | 3.85 | 2.36 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Union Berlin v Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach | 1.59 | 4.78 | 5.90 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | FSV Mainz 05 v SC Paderborn | 1.73 | 4.21 | 5.20 |
| 29 Aug 13:30 | Elversberg v Bayer Leverkusen | 5.75 | 4.83 | 1.61 |
| 29 Aug 16:30 | Borussia Dortmund v Hamburger SV | 1.36 | 5.70 | 9.80 |
| 30 Aug 13:30 | SC Freiburg v Werder Bremen | 2.07 | 3.85 | 3.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 55% confidence rating.
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites at 1.55, which implies roughly a 65% chance of the home win. Union Berlin are outsiders at 6.25.
The draw is available at 5.0 with Tipico, implying around 20% probability. Our model rates it slightly higher at 23%, giving it a positive value edge of 16.53%.
The main value flagged is the draw at 5.0, with a 16.53% edge over the model's fair probability. The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.19 actually shows a small negative edge of -1.51%, so it is more of a confidence-based angle than a value one.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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