Danish Superliga ยท Sun ยท 14:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
AGF Aarhus are favourites at 2.1 (about 48% implied), while Randers FC are underdogs at 3.29 (about 30%).
The draw is priced at 3.6, roughly 28% implied, keeping the result outcome genuinely open.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals line at 1.75 sits at around 54% implied confidence.
No result selection cleared the value threshold, and the Over 2.5 pick shows a negative edge of -6.23%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.6% | 8.59 |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | 9.50 |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | 10.47 |
| 0-2 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
| 1-0 | 7.1% | 14.10 |
| 2-1 | 6.4% | 15.55 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.10 and 1.64. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท RF | X | 2 ยท AA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.14 | 3.71 | 2.16 |
| GTbets | 3.17 | 3.67 | 2.12 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.12 |
| 1xBet | 3.12 | 3.60 | 2.13 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Betsson | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Danish Superliga fixture sees Randers FC host AGF Aarhus, and the market leans clearly toward the visitors. AGF are the favourites at 2.1 with Nordic Bet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 48%. Randers, by contrast, are priced at 3.29 (1xBet), or about 30% in implied terms, marking them as underdogs on their own turf. The draw sits at 3.6, around 28% implied, reflecting a genuine three-way outcome rather than a runaway favourite. Our model's attention here is on the goals market rather than the result: Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 with Nordic Bet carries a market-implied confidence of about 54%. It is worth noting that the calculated value edge on this line is negative at -6.23%, so this is a lean rather than a standout value spot. Approach the fixture with that context in mind and stake within your usual limits.
Verdict: The model's lean is Over 2.5 goals at 1.75, with an implied confidence near 54%. Be aware the value edge is negative at -6.23%, so this is a modest preference rather than a strong-value play. Treat it as a lower-conviction pick and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 17:00 | Brondby IF v Silkeborg IF | 1.60 | 4.50 | 7.20 |
| 28 Aug 17:00 | AC Horsens v Viborg FF | 4.70 | 4.07 | 1.73 |
| 30 Aug 12:00 | Lyngby v OB Odense BK | 2.16 | 3.85 | 3.32 |
| 30 Aug 12:00 | Silkeborg IF v FC Midtjylland | 6.20 | 4.75 | 1.55 |
| 30 Aug 16:00 | FC Nordsjaelland v Brondby IF | 2.28 | 3.77 | 3.30 |
| 31 Aug 17:00 | FC Copenhagen v SonderjyskE | 1.34 | 5.75 | 9.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 58% confidence rating.
AGF Aarhus are the favourites at 2.1 with Nordic Bet, implying roughly a 48% chance. Randers FC are underdogs at 3.29, around 30% implied.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with 1xBet, which implies about a 28% chance and keeps all three outcomes competitive.
No result selection cleared our value threshold, and the recommended Over 2.5 goals line at 1.75 actually shows a negative edge of -6.23%, so it is a lean rather than a strong value bet.
Randers FC vs AGF Aarhus takes place Sun ยท 14:00 in the Danish Superliga.
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