Kelly Criterion explained

Kelly criterion yana ƙididdige pangare na jiya wanda ke haɓaka girman jiya lokacin da kake da karfi: tsaga = karfi ÷ (odds na decimal − 1). Karfin da ya fi girma yana ba da yabo ga tsaga mai girma; odds mai tsayi yana ba da yabo ga tsaga kaɗan a jiya daya, saboda nasarwa bata fadi sau da yawa kuma rashin ajiya yana fi. Full Kelly yana da kishiyar - masu hanya da yawa suna amfani da rabin ko kwata Kelly don lashe watsewa.

Wajin tsaga, Kelly babbar mizani ne don rangewa. Karfi kaman kama babbar matsala - karfi 30% akan outsider 21.00 da yawa lokaci shine aiki na maye kudin ba da kyau ba, ba halin da aka iya fita ba. Rarraba karfi da (odds − 1) yana timbaitawa daraja ta hanyar yadda ya fadi gida, wanda shine daidai yadda screener din ake rarraba zafinsa - karfi kaɗan akan favorite 1.80 zai iya samun matsayi sama da karfi mai girma akan shot 6.00.