MLS head-to-head records

Using MLS head-to-head records properly

H2H history is the most over-weighted statistic in football betting. Squads turn over, managers change, and a 4–0 from three seasons ago tells you about a team that no longer exists. Where these records genuinely carry information is in the aggregate: repeated tactical mismatches, venues where one side reliably struggles, and pairings whose games consistently run high or low on goals.

That last one is the practical use. A pairing averaging well above or below the 1.5-goal competition norm across a decent sample is worth checking against the current totals line — not as a signal on its own, but as a prompt to look closer. Our model ignores H2H history entirely and works from each club’s current scoring and conceding rates, which is the more reliable base; treat these pages as context, not as a system.