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Overround explained

The amount by which a market's implied probabilities exceed 100% — the margin, viewed from the market side.

Sum the implied probabilities of every outcome in a market and the excess over 100% is the overround: a 1X2 summing to 105.5% carries a 5.5% overround. It is the same object as the bookmaker's margin, just measured on the whole market rather than described as a fee.

Overround varies by market and book — mainstream leagues at sharp books run 2–5%, exotic markets and small leagues 8–15%. Checking it takes thirty seconds and tells you what the table stakes are before any opinion enters.

Worked example

Prices 1.95 / 3.60 / 4.10 imply 51.3% + 27.8% + 24.4% = 103.5% — a 3.5% overround, decent. The same fixture elsewhere at 1.83 / 3.40 / 3.90 implies 107.7% — you pay double the toll for identical opinions.

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⚠️ Our AI model is still learning from match data. All predictions are experimental statistical estimates for information purposes only — not financial advice and not an invitation to bet. Outcomes are never guaranteed. 18+ · Gamble responsibly.