Head-to-head records

What head-to-head data is actually good for

Every betting site publishes H2H records, and most readers over-trust them. A meeting from four seasons ago involved different squads, different coaches and often a different division — it says almost nothing about the next ninety minutes. Our model ignores H2H history completely, working instead from each club’s current scoring and conceding rates.

What survives scrutiny is the aggregate. Pairings that reliably produce goals — or reliably strangle each other — often reflect a structural tactical mismatch rather than coincidence, and that is worth checking against the current totals line. Read these pages for that, and for the history; take the probability from the price and the model.