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አማርኛ Goal edge and win-share gap per league
| League | Matches | Home goals/g | Away goals/g | Goal edge | Home win % | Away win % | Win gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UEFA Champions League | 378 | 1.94 | 1.47 | +0.47 | 50.5% | 33.9% | +16.7 |
| Campeonato Brasileiro Série A | 614 | 1.50 | 1.04 | +0.46 | 48.7% | 23.9% | +24.8 |
| Primera Division | 394 | 1.57 | 1.12 | +0.44 | 48.7% | 26.4% | +22.3 |
| Mexico Ligamx | 673 | 1.64 | 1.20 | +0.44 | 47.5% | 28.4% | +19.2 |
| Norway Eliteserien | 468 | 1.76 | 1.31 | +0.44 | 48.9% | 31.2% | +17.7 |
| Eredivisie | 317 | 1.79 | 1.38 | +0.41 | 44.5% | 29.7% | +14.8 |
| Poland Ekstraklasa | 598 | 1.58 | 1.19 | +0.39 | 46.2% | 28.3% | +17.9 |
| Spl | 240 | 1.58 | 1.20 | +0.38 | 45.0% | 28.8% | +16.3 |
| Usa Mls | 1000 | 1.71 | 1.37 | +0.35 | 45.3% | 30.6% | +14.7 |
| Ligue 1 | 314 | 1.58 | 1.24 | +0.34 | 45.5% | 29.6% | +15.9 |
| Premier League | 389 | 1.54 | 1.21 | +0.33 | 43.4% | 29.6% | +13.9 |
| Bundesliga | 306 | 1.78 | 1.46 | +0.32 | 43.8% | 31.7% | +12.1 |
| England League1 | 565 | 1.48 | 1.16 | +0.32 | 45.7% | 29.0% | +16.6 |
| Germany Bundesliga2 | 324 | 1.63 | 1.31 | +0.31 | 45.7% | 29.9% | +15.7 |
| Primeira Liga | 323 | 1.50 | 1.20 | +0.29 | 40.9% | 31.6% | +9.3 |
| Argentina Primera Division | 1063 | 1.14 | 0.85 | +0.29 | 42.1% | 26.3% | +15.8 |
| Spain Segunda Division | 473 | 1.45 | 1.17 | +0.28 | 44.8% | 30.0% | +14.8 |
| Greece Super League | 236 | 1.42 | 1.14 | +0.28 | 41.1% | 30.5% | +10.6 |
| Austria Bundesliga | 384 | 1.49 | 1.23 | +0.26 | 42.7% | 31.5% | +11.2 |
| Denmark Superliga | 375 | 1.66 | 1.42 | +0.25 | 44.3% | 29.6% | +14.7 |
| Turkey Super League | 315 | 1.45 | 1.20 | +0.25 | 42.2% | 28.3% | +14.0 |
| Japan J League | 511 | 1.35 | 1.13 | +0.22 | 43.6% | 31.1% | +12.5 |
| Sweden Allsvenskan | 466 | 1.53 | 1.31 | +0.22 | 40.1% | 34.8% | +5.4 |
| Championship | 569 | 1.39 | 1.21 | +0.19 | 41.5% | 31.8% | +9.7 |
| Belgium First Div | 329 | 1.44 | 1.26 | +0.18 | 40.7% | 33.7% | +7.0 |
| Serie A | 388 | 1.27 | 1.15 | +0.12 | 38.7% | 35.6% | +3.1 |
Goal edge = home goals per game minus away goals per game. Win gap = home-win share minus away-win share, in percentage points. Leagues qualify at 100+ recorded matches.
How to read this as a bettor
The market prices home advantage into every 1X2 line, but it largely prices the global effect. When a league sits at the top of this table, generic pricing slightly underrates its home sides; at the bottom, it overrates them. The edges are small — a tenth of a goal moves an even-match win probability by two or three points — but they are systematic, which is more than can be said for most angles sold to bettors.
Two honest caveats. First, sample: a season of one league is a few hundred matches, and the extremes of any such table partly reflect noise that will regress. Second, home advantage is not constant — it has drifted downward across football for decades and moves with attendance, altitude and travel distances. That is exactly why this page recomputes from the live dataset on every build instead of quoting a study from five years ago.
Our own model carries separate home and away rates per team rather than one global constant, so league-level differences flow into every probability it publishes. The point of the table is transparency: you can see the raw effect the model sees.