Ekstraklasa · Fri · 18:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Wisła Kraków are favourites at 1.95 (about 51% implied), with Wisła Płock the outsiders at 3.85 (around 26%).
The draw is priced at 3.6, implying roughly a 28% chance, so a stalemate is far from unlikely.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.89 sits at about 50% implied confidence, near a coin flip.
That Over 2.5 line shows a negative value edge of -5.5%, indicating no market-beating value at the current price.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Płock to win | 3.85 | +3.1% | 27% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisła Kraków | 2.00 | Coolbet | 50.0% |
| Wisła Płock | 3.85 | Unibet (SE) | 26.0% |
| Draw | 3.55 | Marathon Bet | 28.2% |
This Ekstraklasa clash between Wisła Kraków and Wisła Płock carries a clear favourite according to the market. Wisła Kraków are priced at 1.95, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 51%, while Wisła Płock sit at 3.85, or about 26%. The draw is quoted at 3.6, close to a 28% chance. Those numbers make Kraków modest favourites at home without suggesting a lopsided contest, and the visitors' price leaves room for an upset. Our model's attention is not on the match-result line but on total goals: it leans towards Over 2.5 goals at 1.89, roughly a 50% market-implied confidence. However, that pick carries a negative value edge of -5.5%, meaning the price offers no measurable advantage over the market's own assessment. With no value picks clearing our threshold here, this is a fixture to approach selectively rather than force.
Verdict: The model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.89, but with a -5.5% edge there is no genuine value on offer. Treat this as a marginal, higher-risk selection rather than a standout play, and stake only within your normal bankroll limits.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 12:45 | Radomiak Radom v Górnik Zabrze | 2.98 | 3.55 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 15:30 | Pogoń Szczecin v Motor Lublin | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.57 |
| 8 Aug 18:15 | Korona Kielce v Legia Warszawa | 2.81 | 3.40 | 2.59 |
| 9 Aug 12:45 | Raków Częstochowa v Zagłębie Lubin | 1.61 | 3.80 | 5.15 |
| 9 Aug 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Piast Gliwice | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| 9 Aug 18:15 | Jagiellonia Białystok v Widzew Łódź | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 50% confidence rating.
Wisła Kraków are the favourites at 1.95, implying about a 51% chance. Wisła Płock are the outsiders at 3.85, roughly 26%.
The draw is priced at 3.6 with Coolbet, which implies approximately a 28% probability.
Based on our data, no. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.89 carries a -5.5% value edge, and no picks cleared our value threshold.
Wisła Kraków vs Wisła Płock takes place Fri · 18:30 in the Ekstraklasa.
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