Primeira Liga · Sat · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Vitória SC are favourites at 1.91 (about 52% implied), while Arouca drift to 4.17 (about 24%), a sizeable price gap.
The draw is priced at 3.7 (Tipico), implying roughly 27% and sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.92 reflects near even-money confidence of about 50%.
On value, Over 2.5 carries a negative edge of -4.5%, whereas Arouca at 4.17 shows a small positive edge of 4.17% against a fair probability of 25%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 8.98 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.88 |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 12.00 |
| 1-2 | 7.4% | 13.46 |
| 2-0 | 6.9% | 14.53 |
| 0-1 | 6.7% | 14.84 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.65 and 1.33. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Vitória SC's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 4.30 | Betfair | 23.3% |
| Vitória SC | 1.90 | Coolbet | 52.6% |
| Draw | 3.85 | Betfair | 26.0% |
Vitória SC host Arouca in the Primeira Liga, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Vitória are priced at 1.91 with Betfair, translating to an implied probability of roughly 52%, marking them as clear home favourites. Arouca are the outsiders at 4.17 (Pinnacle), which prices their chances at around 24%, while the draw sits at 3.7 (Tipico), implying about 27%. That spread points to a contest the market expects Vitória to control without fully writing off an Arouca upset. Our model, however, steers away from the match result and toward the goals market: the recommended bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.92 (Pinnacle), a near coin-flip with market-implied confidence of 50%. It's worth noting the value edge here is negative at -4.5%, so this is a lean rather than a standout price, and staking should reflect that.
Verdict: The model leans to Over 2.5 goals at 1.92, essentially a coin-flip call. With a negative value edge of -4.5%, this is a modest preference rather than a strong price, so treat it as a small-stake lean and manage your bankroll accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 19:15 | Estoril v Famalicão | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.34 |
| 8 Aug 14:30 | CS Maritimo v Casa Pia | 2.48 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| 8 Aug 19:30 | CF Estrela v Sporting Lisbon | 14.50 | 6.60 | 1.24 |
| 9 Aug 17:00 | FC Porto v Alverca | 1.21 | 7.80 | 16.50 |
| 9 Aug 19:30 | Benfica v Académico de Viseu | 1.13 | 10.00 | 26.00 |
| 9 Aug 19:30 | Gil Vicente v Rio Ave FC | 2.01 | 3.57 | 4.20 |
| 9 Aug 19:30 | Moreirense FC v Braga | 5.20 | 3.75 | 1.73 |
| 10 Aug 19:15 | Santa Clara v Nacional | 1.96 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 33 | 27 | 4 | 2 | +47 | 85 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 32 | 25 | 5 | 2 | +65 | 80 |
| 3 | SL Benfica | 33 | 22 | 11 | 0 | +46 | 77 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | +28 | 56 |
| 5 | Famalicão | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | +13 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | +8 | 47 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -9 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 33 | 12 | 6 | 15 | -16 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril Praia | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Vitória SC | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | -14 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | -18 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | -20 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 33 | 8 | 9 | 16 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | CD Nacional | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | -17 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 6 | 12 | 14 | -24 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 6 | 9 | 17 | -26 | 27 |
| 18 | AVS | 33 | 3 | 11 | 19 | -40 | 20 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 50% confidence rating.
Vitória SC are the favourites at 1.91 with Betfair, implying roughly a 52% chance. Arouca are the outsiders at 4.17, around 24% implied.
The draw is best priced at 3.7 with Tipico, which implies approximately a 27% probability.
The model's Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.92 actually shows a negative edge of -4.5%. The only flagged positive value is Arouca at 4.17, with a fair probability of 25% and a small edge of around 4.17%.
Vitória SC vs Arouca takes place Sat · 17:00 in the Primeira Liga.
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