Ekstraklasa · Sun · 12:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Raków are strong favourites at 1.61, an implied probability of about 62%, well ahead of Zagłębie's 5.2 (roughly 19%).
The draw is priced at 3.82, implying around a 26% chance of the points being shared.
Our model rates Raków's win chance near 57%, slightly below the market's implied figure, producing a negative value edge of -7.88%.
No value picks cleared our threshold for this fixture, indicating the prices are broadly efficient rather than offering an edge.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raków Częstochowa | 1.61 | Marathon Bet | 62.1% |
| Zagłębie Lubin | 5.15 | Marathon Bet | 19.4% |
| Draw | 3.80 | Marathon Bet | 26.3% |
This Ekstraklasa fixture sees Raków Częstochowa host Zagłębie Lubin, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it favours. Raków are priced at 1.61 with 888sport, translating to a market-implied probability of roughly 62%, and our model reads their chance at about 57%. Zagłębie, meanwhile, are the clear outsiders at 5.2 with Marathon Bet, implied at around 19%, while the draw sits at 3.82, or about 26% in probability terms. The gap between the two prices is substantial, underlining that bookmakers expect the home side to control this one. Our recommended bet is Raków to win at 1.61, though it is worth flagging that this comes with a negative value edge of -7.88%, meaning the price offers no theoretical overlay against our model. In short, the market and our numbers agree on the favourite, but the odds already reflect that confidence fully.
Verdict: The recommended play is Raków Częstochowa to win at 1.61. It aligns with both the market and our model as the most likely outcome, but the short price carries a negative value edge, so the risk-reward is modest. Stake responsibly and treat this as a low-odds favourite pick, not a value overlay.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:30 | Wisła Kraków v Wisła Płock | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| 8 Aug 12:45 | Radomiak Radom v Górnik Zabrze | 2.98 | 3.55 | 2.38 |
| 8 Aug 15:30 | Pogoń Szczecin v Motor Lublin | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.57 |
| 8 Aug 18:15 | Korona Kielce v Legia Warszawa | 2.81 | 3.40 | 2.59 |
| 9 Aug 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Piast Gliwice | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| 9 Aug 18:15 | Jagiellonia Białystok v Widzew Łódź | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Raków Częstochowa to win at odds of 1.61, with a 57% confidence rating.
Raków Częstochowa are the clear favourites at 1.61, an implied probability of about 62%. Zagłębie Lubin are the outsiders at 5.2, roughly 19%.
The draw is available at 3.82 with Marathon Bet, which implies around a 26% chance of the match ending level.
No value picks cleared our threshold here. The recommended Raków win at 1.61 actually shows a negative value edge of -7.88%, so the price fully reflects their favouritism rather than offering an overlay.
Raków Częstochowa vs Zagłębie Lubin takes place Sun · 12:45 in the Ekstraklasa.
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