Ekstraklasa · Sat · 12:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
Górnik Zabrze are favourites at 2.41 (about 41% implied), ahead of Radomiak Radom at 2.95 (about 34%).
The gap between the two sides is modest, suggesting the market sees a competitive fixture rather than a clear mismatch.
The draw is priced at 3.5, implying roughly a 29% chance of honours ending even.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 carries a negative value edge of -4.51%, meaning it is not flagged as positive value against the market.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Górnik Zabrze | 2.38 | Betfair | 42.0% |
| Radomiak Radom | 2.98 | Betfair | 33.6% |
| Draw | 3.55 | Pinnacle | 28.2% |
This Ekstraklasa clash sees Radomiak Radom host Górnik Zabrze, and the market leans towards the visitors despite home advantage. Górnik Zabrze are the favourites at a best price of 2.41 with Pinnacle, which translates to an implied probability of around 41%. Radomiak Radom sit as underdogs at 2.95 with Coolbet, roughly a 34% chance, while the draw is priced at 3.5 (about 29%). Those numbers point to a reasonably open contest rather than a lopsided mismatch. Our model instead looks past the match result and towards goals, flagging Over 2.5 goals at 1.93 with Pinnacle as the recommended angle. That price implies close to a coin-flip outcome, with market-implied confidence around 49%. Note, however, that the value edge on this pick is negative at -4.51%, so it reflects a lean on game profile rather than a clear pricing inefficiency in your favour.
Verdict: The recommended play is Over 2.5 goals at 1.93, a near coin-flip priced at around 49% implied. It is a lean on an open game rather than a value edge, given the -4.51% figure. Treat it as a low-conviction pick and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 18:30 | Wisła Kraków v Wisła Płock | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| 8 Aug 15:30 | Pogoń Szczecin v Motor Lublin | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.57 |
| 8 Aug 18:15 | Korona Kielce v Legia Warszawa | 2.81 | 3.40 | 2.59 |
| 9 Aug 12:45 | Raków Częstochowa v Zagłębie Lubin | 1.61 | 3.80 | 5.15 |
| 9 Aug 15:30 | Lech Poznań v Piast Gliwice | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| 9 Aug 18:15 | Jagiellonia Białystok v Widzew Łódź | 2.38 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.89, with a 51% confidence rating.
Górnik Zabrze are the market favourites at a best price of 2.41 with Pinnacle, implying roughly a 41% chance. Radomiak Radom are priced at 2.95, about 34%.
The draw is available at 3.5 with Coolbet, which implies around a 29% probability of the match ending level.
Our model recommends Over 2.5 goals at 1.93, but the value edge is negative at -4.51%. That means it is a game-profile lean rather than a clear value pick against the market.
Radomiak Radom vs Górnik Zabrze takes place Sat · 12:45 in the Ekstraklasa.
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