Liga MX · Sun · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 5, 2026 · how we work
The market makes Pumas firm favourites at 1.64 (around 61% implied), well ahead of Querétaro at 5.05 (around 20%).
The draw is priced at 4.2 with Coolbet, implying roughly 24% and sitting between the two outright prices.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.16 reflects about 44% implied confidence, but carries a negative value edge of -5.5%.
No value picks cleared our threshold against the market consensus, so this is a lean rather than a strong edge.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Outcome | Best price | Bookmaker | Implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pumas | 1.64 | Coolbet | 61.0% |
| Querétaro | 5.05 | Marathon Bet | 19.8% |
| Draw | 4.20 | Coolbet | 23.8% |
This Liga MX meeting sees Pumas host Querétaro, and the market leaves little doubt about which side is favoured. Pumas are priced at 1.64 with Coolbet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 61%. Querétaro are clear outsiders at 5.05 with Marathon Bet, implying around 20%, while the draw sits at 4.2 (about 24%) with Coolbet. That spread reflects a home side the market expects to control proceedings against visitors given only a modest chance. Rather than backing the result, our model looks to the goals market and lands on Under 2.5 goals at 2.16 with 1xBet, priced at roughly 44% implied confidence. It is worth noting this selection carries a negative value edge of -5.5%, meaning the odds are slightly shorter than our model considers fair. There is no value pick above threshold on the match result here, so caution and staking discipline are sensible.
Verdict: The lean is Under 2.5 goals at 2.16, reflecting roughly 44% model confidence. Be aware the selection shows a -5.5% value edge, meaning the price is slightly unfavourable versus our fair estimate. Treat it as a modest, higher-risk angle and stake responsibly rather than chasing.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Aug 23:00 | Atlante FC v Toluca | 5.90 | 4.20 | 1.58 |
| 16 Aug 01:00 | Monterrey v FC Juárez | 1.56 | 4.40 | 5.75 |
| 16 Aug 03:00 | Atlas v Tigres | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| 16 Aug 23:00 | América v Atlético San Luis | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.40 |
| 17 Aug 01:00 | Santos Laguna v Guadalajara | 5.25 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| 17 Aug 03:00 | Tijuana v Cruz Azul | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| 18 Aug 01:00 | Necaxa v León | 2.30 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| 18 Aug 03:00 | Pachuca v Puebla | 1.40 | 4.75 | 8.25 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20, with a 43% confidence rating.
Pumas are the favourites at 1.64 with Coolbet, an implied probability of around 61%. Querétaro are outsiders at 5.05, roughly 20%.
The draw is priced at 4.2 with Coolbet, which implies a probability of about 24%.
No value picks cleared our threshold here. Our recommended Under 2.5 goals at 2.16 actually shows a negative value edge of -5.5%, so it is a lean rather than a value play.
Pumas vs Querétaro takes place Sun · 18:00 in the Liga MX.
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